WX-MAN's Musings

The title of this post comes from a comment left yesterday on the WROC News 8 Weather blog and a post done by our Chief Meteorologist, Scott Hetsko, “BEATING A DEAD HORSE” on how yet another storm system will miss Western New York. This comment struck a chord with me and I think it really sums up the frustration felt by many who visit our blog and love winter.

Here are the facts, as I know them. Here in Rochester we have seen 62.2″ of snow for the season. At least 90% of that is from lake effect. It’s tough to quantify just how much of our current snowfall has come from synoptic but it’s safe to say that less than 10 inches of our 62.2″ is from snow outside of lake effect. When you consider that 50% to maybe 55% of our snow (on average) comes from lake effect with the other 45% to 50% coming from snow storms, to be above normal for the season and getting only 10% from synoptic that is impressive, but not the scenario many of you want to see.

This morning, I talked with one of the Buffalo National Weather Service Meteorologist Steve Mclaughlin, he provided me with some of the data above. Since I’ve only been here for 2 winters, I also wanted to get a better climatological understanding of where all of our snow comes from and see if I could pick their brains a little to see when we might start to see a change in the pattern and get a good storm up here in Western New York.

This brings me to another comment left by another frustrated visitor to our blog who said this, “are there ANY scraps for us to hold on to at this point that give us hope that a big one is still coming….based on data?” Unfortunately, the best data we have at this point is climatology, and historically speaking, our best chance to get a big synoptic storm is from late February into early March. If you are looking for any big storms for the next two weeks it still doesn’t look like it is in our favor. In fact, there are some forecasts that I have seen that push the southern jet even a little farther south and some of these storms just pass through the southeastern US and out to see.

We all feel your frustration here in the weather office. We want to have our turn at a big snow storm, but we need realize how fortunate we are that we have any snow at all, and to be above normal for the season at this point.

The saying goes “misery loves company” and if you go and check out AccuWeather.com’s Jesse Farrell’s Weather Matrix blog he did a post on other northeastern locations that are fairing worst than we are when it comes to their seasonal snow amounts.

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That’s right Woodchuck Chuckers, it’s GROUNDHOG DAY!!! This is one of my favorite holidays. It’s just fun. I also love winter, so I am not too disappointed that Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow which means 6 more weeks of winter.

Groundhog Day grew out of what had essentially been a German superstition. German settlers brought with them the idea that if a hibernating animal casts a shadow Feb. 2 — the Christian holiday of Candlemas — winter will last another six weeks. If no shadow is seen, legend says spring will come early.

It’s pretty common for ‘ol Punxsutawney Phil to see his shadow. Of his 113 predictions, Phil has seen his shadow 99 times or 87% of the time with only 14 times he has predicted an early spring.

As far as Phil’s accuracy, if you ask the Inner Circle who takes care of Phil he is right 100% of the time but according to StormFax Weather Almanac, and records kept since 1887, Phil is right only 39% of the time.

Thanks to the 1993 movie staring Bill Murray, Punxsutawney Phil may be the best known of the Groundhogs but he isn’t the only furry forecaster making predictions on February 2nd. In fact, there are several across the United States and Canada and one right here in Western New York. Here is a short list of other known Groundhogs and their predictions for 2010.

• Dunkirk Dave (Dunkirk, NY) – Saw no Shadow, an early Spring
• Wiarton Willie (South Bruce Peninsula, Ontario CA) – Saw his Shadow, 6 more weeks of winter
• Staten Island Chuck – (Staten Island, NY) – Saw no Shadow, an early Spring
• Shubenacadie Sam (Nova Scotia CA) – Saw his Shadow, 6 more weeks of winter

Of course this is a very small list of all the Groundhog celebrations across North America, you can see more here at “Groundhog Central”

Of course as far as my official forecast for spring is that it will arrive March 20th but we all know here in Western New York that spring never arrives then but usually around mid April. Have a great day everyone.

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For just a couple of minutes every February second, in front of a large crowd, television lights and cameras Phil is held by the mayor for all to see then his declaration is read and he goes back to living the rock-star life any groundhog could wish for. But based on a letter and blog post written by PETA (People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals) this is not acceptable treatment of a groundhog.

“To most people, Groundhog Day—celebrated annually on February 2—is a welcome midwinter diversion, but Punxsutawney Phil is forced to be on display year round at the local library and is denied the ability to prepare for and enter yearly hibernation. These normally shy animals—who are constantly on alert when they are out of their burrows—become stressed when they are exposed to large, screaming crowds; flashing lights from perhaps hundreds of cameras; and human handling.”

PETA’s solution, replace Phil with a robot, more specifically an animatronic groundhog. Personally, I feel and think that PETA is really just looking for something at this point. In many of the places I have lived, the groundhog is very common in the wild. Because of this I’ve seen lots of these wild groundhogs succumb to being roadkill on the side of the road.

As I mentioned above, Phil lives the life of a rock-star, compared to other groundhogs, and he lives in a special, climate-controlled house, gnaws on the finest groundhog cuisine and receives cutting-edge rodent health care.

What do you think? Do you agree with PETA on this or do you feel they are just looking for something to protest?

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Tomorrow is February 2nd and it’s Groundhog day, and it’s time for my Groundhog Day Eve preview. Here are some facts about Punxsutawney Phil and Groundhog Day you should know.

WHO IS PHIL?:Punxsutawney Phil has been making weather prognostications every Feb. 2 in Punxsutawney, Pa., since 1886.

THE ORIGINS: Groundhog Day grew out of what had essentially been a German superstition. German settlers brought with them the idea that if a hibernating animal casts a shadow Feb. 2 — the Christian holiday of Candlemas — winter will last another six weeks. If no shadow is seen, legend says spring will come early.

WHERE IT HAPPENS: Punxsutawney is a town of about 6,100 people located about 65 miles northeast of Pittsburgh.

MORE INFORMATION: http://www.groundhog.org/ and you can watch the live forecast here: VisitPA.com

Punxsutawney Phil may be the most famous of the groundhogs but he’s not the only furry forecaster around. Here in Western New York we have two groundhog traditions. Dunkirk Dave and Ridge Lea Larry.

For more of Phil’s cousins you can check out Groundhog Central.

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