WX-Man.com 2007/2008 Winter Weather Forecast

The demand has been high for the 2007-2008 Winter Weather forecast, but I want to stress like other long range forecasts, my forecast has its limitations. This my second ever attempt at a winter forecast and I will tell you right off the start that long range forecast is one of my weaker areas. So please take this for what it is worth. It is my thoughts and opinions based on what I see from other forecasts and climatic features that could influence the winter of 2007-2008 as well as weather data from the past that best parallel this particular winter season.

Last year was my first attempt and I would give it a grade of a “B”. The end result was what I thought, temperatures were about average in Erie and I forecasted above average snowfall and we saw 108″ which is nearly 18 inches above average. The reason I give it a “B” was how the 2006-2007 season started. Who would have thought Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years would be warmer than Valentines Day, St. Patrick’s Day and Easter.

Like last year, I’ve read NOAA’s Winter Weather Forecast, AccuWeather.com’s Winter forecast, and various others like NY NJ PA Weather.com Winter Outlook and Phillyweather.net’s 2007-2008 Winter Forecast. The predominant feature in all of these forecasts is the development of a moderate to strong La Niña this winter season.

Here is a look at the current La Niña conditions in the Pacific…

Like last year, using analog years or past years and seasons that display similar climatic features as the forecasted season or year. The 5 seasons that have been mentioned through several of the forecasts I have seen seem to be inline with what AccuWeather.com is using. 1949-50, 1950-51, 1954-55, 1955-56 and 1998-99. Below are the Temperature and Precipitation maps from those years.

(La Nina Year Temp. Departures)

(La Nina Year Precip Departures)

Because of limitations to data from the past I was able to use climate data from where I currently live and work (Erie, PA) and where I grew up (Central Indiana). Using past weather date from those years and looking at all the winter weather forecasts I could this is what I came up with for snow amounts and temperatures.

Erie, PA for the Winter of 2007-2008 is tricky when it comes to snow. La Nina winters are not consistent especially with snow amounts. The winter of 1949-50 yielded 81.1″ of snow then the next winter (1950-51), also a La Nina winter, produced 110.2″. Then 1954-55 had 49.1″ and 1955-56 had a total of 66.6″. The final winter we are using is 1998-99 where we had 111.1″ of snow. So you can see it can vary from a lot to a little.

Average Snowfall for NW PA:

For Erie’s snow forecast for 2007-2008 the predicted range could be anywhere from 80 to 100 inches and with the average being around 90 we could be either above or below average by 10 inches. If I had to set a number then I would lean more towards the average of 90″ than to far below or above. Mainly because over the last 15 years only a third of the winters have had below average snowfall in Erie.

Temperatures I tend to follow the analogs and other winter forecasts that we will be slightly above average as far as temperatures go. When we predict above average temperatures does this mean it will never be cold. Hardly, we will see the occasional cold outbreak but it might mean we don’t see as many cold outbreaks or we won’t see long extended periods of cold weather.

I turn my focus now to Central Indiana. I have had a lot of people asking me what the forecast looks like for Central Indiana and as I was trying to help them find one I noticed there wasn’t one so I requested snowfall and temperature data for Indianapolis since 1949 to the present. Using the same method as I did for Erie. Looking at all winter forecasts and analog years here is what I came up with. Snow amounts seemed to be pretty consistent across those La Nina years, with the exception of the 1949-50 winter season where there was only 5.8″ of snow. That is if the data is valid because as I was looking over Erie winter season I came across some bad data also.

So here is my thinking as far as snow for Central Indiana. Keep in mind I am using one location and from my experience growing up there. Indianapolis doesn’t always get the brunt of winter storms. I am estimating that Indianapolis could see anywhere from 25 to 29 inches of snow for the 2007 to 2008 winter season. This appears to be close to or slightly above average (Avg = 26″), but snows could be less if most of the winter storms come during a prolong period of above average temperatures which could take place during the heart of the winter season. Which I agree with the overall forecast from many sources that the Ohio Valley and Indiana will see temperatures above average.

Here areindividual monthly maps for La Niña Analogs that are being used in the winter 2007-2008 forecast for Temperature and Precipitation, this might give you an idea of what to expect for each month. It looks like the months of Jan and Feb could be very much above average: Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar |

This is my best effort and guess on what I think the winter of 2007-2008 hold. Please keep in mind that long range forecasting is a big challenge and the accuracy in these forecasts tend to be low. Why do you think NOAA constantly updates their forecast through out the winter. I too will probably do the same but this is my thinking right now.

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