WX-MAN's Musings

From the Storm Prediction Center WCM Page:

The 2008 preliminary tornado count has been climbing dramatically. By most accounts, the year is off to a record start in tornado numbers. It is important to understand that the preliminary count for 2008 is based on Local Storm Reports (LSRs) transmitted by local National Weather Service Forecast Offices around the country. The preliminary tornado count is an overestimate because duplicate reports are often transmitted for a single tornado (This is especially true for long-track significant tornadoes!). With time, these numbers are refined and published in the National Weather Service Storm Data publication.

January 2008, with 88 tornadoes based on Storm Data, was not a record for January. January 1999 retains the record with 212 tornadoes documented in Storm Data. February 2008, with 148 actual tornadoes, appears to have established a new record for that month. The old February record of 83 tornadoes was established in 1971. The 30-year average number of tornadoes for January and February is about 23 each month. Obviously, 2008 started out with well above normal tornado activity!

* Note! Given the changes observed between the preliminary numbers and the numbers appearing in Storm Data, an estimated curve has been added for 2008 to date. This curve is based on an approximate 30% reduction in the preliminary numbers. Estimates of the actual tornado count can be calculated by taking the preliminary count and multiplying by 0.70. This is only a rough estimate and actual figures will be added to the thick red line as those numbers become available.

The 2008 tornado season definitely leaves a lot of us scratching our heads and asking what are we witnessing here. This is an astounding season we are witnessing with tornado outbreaks in January and February. You have to ask the question what, if any, effect climate change on tornadoes and severe weather.

NOAA has already stated this could be a record season for tornadoes and possibly tornado fatalities. Andrew Freedman of the Washington Posts Capital Weather Gang (Formerly CapitalWeather.com) in his June 2nd 2008 post tackles this issue by asking, “Is Climate Change Twisting Tornadoes?” If you are curious whether or not there is a link between the 2008 tornado season and climate change, it is a good read.

I will be honest as a meteorologist I am still trying to find the reason for such an active season. There are a lot of theories I have heard and read. Keep in mind meteorology is the study of weather. Sometimes answers to certain weather events are easy to come by other times, it takes time to do a case study and get all the facts before an answer can be formulated.

The strong start to the tornado season should serve as a reminder to us all that tornadoes can strike anywhere at any time. The best defense is to monitor the news and listen to NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards for the latest weather updates. Be prepared to move to safety if weather conditions become threatening. Have a plan for severe weather in your home so when severe weather strikes you know what to do and where to go to protect yourself and your loved ones.

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