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Folklore Winter Forecasting

Brian Neudorff @ 6:22 pm September 21st, 2007 · 5 Comments

With fall one day away. It officially arrives Sunday morning, September 23, 2007, at 5:51 AM EDT. This site has been buzzing about the upcoming winter of 2007-2008, people searching for the winter weather forecast probably makes up about 80 to 90% of all my visitors.

In response to the demand, I have been looking for news everyday and whenever I find something I try to post it. Both Almanac forecasts have been posted, The Old Farmer’s Almanac and The Farmers’ Almanac. Which both seem to have different forecasts. The Farmers’ Almanac says the East is in for a cold, harsh winter, where the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a warmer than average winter in much of the country, and that 2008 will be the warmest year in a century. Both of these institutions combine a little bit of science with a lot of folklore. There are a lot of people who live by these publications.

While searching for more info, thoughts and opinions on the upcoming winter I came across a lot of folklore forecasts for this upcoming winter. One of the stories was from Okemo Mountain Resort in Vermont and some of the signs that employees have observed as signs of snowy winter ahead. We might learn more after this weekend because Vermilion, OH’s famous Woollybear Festival takes place this weekend. If you want more in depth look at some of the folklore forecasting methods, Jesse Ferrell from AccuWeather.com takes a look at some of the more popular folklore forecasts and how valid they are or aren’t. Jesse looks at the Woollybear caterpillar, Squirrels and their nuts, and does your pet’s coat of fur and its thickness have any indication in the upcoming winter.

Besides comments on this blog I have received emails from people who want to know what this upcoming winter will be like, and many have commented that they feel like this winter may be a bad one. So what do you think? Do you have a method of forecasting the winter that has worked for you? I would like to hear from you whether you live here in Northwest Pennsylvania or some where else in the United States please share your story. If you find a Woollybear caterpillar take a picture and email it to me at wxman.com {A/T} gmail.com. Maybe we can see just how good these critters are in forecasting the winter…

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Tags: Accuweather · Comment Responce · Erie Weather · Forecasting · Long Range Forecast · Misc Weather · Seasonal Outlooks · Weather Blogs · Weather News · Weather Opinons · weatherlore · Winter 2007/2008 · Winter Forecast · WX-MAN.com

5 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Alan Sullivan // Sep 22, 2007 at 2:03 pm

    I’m betting on a typical La Nina winter: cold from the northern and central plains to the mid-Atlantic and NE. Snowy in the Great Lakes. Wet and stormy in NW, dry and warm in SW.

    Already the polar vortex looks stronger than normal — hence that terrific hailstorm in Fargo the other night.

  • 2 JACKIE // Sep 23, 2007 at 10:14 pm

    DO you think Tennessee will have a wet and snowy winter or a cold and dry winter or, last choice , dry and warm?(Every body including me is hoping for a wet , cold and, snowy winter)WE LOVE IT DOWN HERE IN TENNESSEE!

  • 3 THERESA // Oct 10, 2007 at 10:28 pm


  • 4 Layla // Oct 21, 2007 at 4:36 am

    For everybody living in INDIANA and curious to find out about this winter :
    -Well, it’s going to be a mild winter starting from mid December.
    -No snow till New Year.
    -A lot of snow (while not too cold) in January, February and the beginning of March.
    -Or may be no snow during these months if it starts snowing at the beginning of December.
    -If, and only if it starts snowing in mid December the following months will cover us in snow : January and March (and may be February if it’s sunny at least one week).
    -That’s it. :-)
    My method of forecasting the weather : I just have a very strong feeling.
    It’s actually so simple to predict the weather : 50% chances of snow this winter (as our weather channel many times forecasts) :-))

  • 5 Jim Zachary // Oct 29, 2007 at 8:35 am

    What is the winter weather forecast for central Indiana?

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