WX-MAN's Musings

Over the last 24 to 48 hours there has been a lot of talk and discussion about the potential for a big storm riding up the east coast early next week from Monday into Wednesday. 24 hours ago this storm was looking like a potential historic storm but since then the forecast models have shifted this storm more to the east and it appears that parts of New England and northern New York could see the significant snow.

Here in Rochester, NY it was looking like we could get several inches of snow (15 to20 inches) but it is starting to appear that is not the case. This is all just speculation and it is very difficult to get a feel for these storms this far out.

As a meteorologist, I will be honest 24 hours ago I was excited about the prospect of this storm. It had some of the earmarks of being one of those storms you talk about. After seeing the latest info, reading some more information and talking with the other meteorologist at the station I have decided to take a wait and see approach. I think sometimes we forecast what we want or hope will happen instead of looking at all the facts and paying attention to the tends in the various forecast models. I think we will have a much better idea starting Sunday on what this storm will do. I personally like to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. If the current trend in the models holds true then this storm will be faster, weaker and farther to the east bringing some snow to some on the coast. At this point there are a lot of good ideas but that’s all they are until you actually have the storm form and it makes its move.

Here is AccuWeather.com’s snow forecast before the 12Z models came out this morning.

If you want to see what other meteorologist think of this storm there is a wide point of view over at AccuWeather.com

AccuWeather.com Headline: Groundhog Day Storm, First of Many Big Storms (AccuWeather.com is predicting a big storm in the eastern United States early this coming week to kick off what may be a stormy February and early March.)

AccuWeather.com Henry Margusity, Meteorological Madness: STOP the Model Nonsense & NAM has the Reality

AccuWeather.com Jesse Ferrell, The Weather Matrix Blog: Models on Groundhog Day Storm, Southeast Snow

AccuWeather.com Elliot Abrams, Northeast U.S. Weather Blog: The Post Groundhog Day Storm of 2009

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