WX-MAN's Musings

(Note: I am sorry that this isn’t my typical blog post with links but I just don’t have the time today, please visit the links from the previous post and the hurricane blog roll on the right side of the page.)

I am sorry for the lack of updating today. Not a lot of sleep and had other life responsibilities I had to tend too. Really the only major changes from last night is that Ike rapidly intensified from a category 1 hurricane to a category 4 with peak maximum sustained winds of 145 mph. It eventually weaken during the day to 135 mph winds as of 5pm. It is dealing with some wind shear so I expect, and this follows most forecasts as well, Ike will teeter between a cat 3 and 4 for the next few days.

Ike’s long range forecasted path is still very uncertain it is still a threat for the east coast of the United States from New England to the Florida keys and although, at this point, it seems very unlikely, there is a small chance it makes its way into the Gulf of Mexico.

It appears Alan Sullivan, who blogs from south Florida, has already declared:

New models are out. Most of them place the center of Ike very close to South Florida at 120 hours. I just booked a room in Fort Myers. We’re getting out on Monday, if this thing is still on track.

Brendan Loy the “Weather Nerd” points out what a good deal of the models are pointing out:

Just a quick update: Eric Berger writes that the computer models analyzing Hurricane Ike’s future have “clustered” around a track that takes the storm toward South Florida in 5-6 days. (See here.) Intensity estimates vary, but one important model, the HWRF, shows a 140-mph hurricane slamming Miami on Tuesday: Click here to read the full post

Although Hanna hangs on as a “Tropical Storm” and is expected to impact the U.S. sooner than Ike, Ike is a much bigger concern than Hanna when you look at how strong it is now and that it is forecasted to be a major hurricane (Cat 3 or stronger) 4 to 5 days from now.

Speaking of Hanna, the NHC still classify it as a tropical storm, but for the last 12 hours Hanna has looked more like a subtropical storm. At last look of the satellite the convection associated with Hanna was to the north and west of its center. Jared Smith a blogger in Charleston SC has a good blog following Hanna and he points out the range of the wind field associated with Hanna:

The wind field is still pretty broad — 310 miles, to be exact — but largely to the north and northeast. We in Charleston still stand a decent chance of seeing tropical storm force winds for a time, and some rain, but with the dry air influencing the storm as well as the continued rightward bias in the models, impacts along our coast will be lessened.

I have to admit my “Gut” feeling was wrong and now instead of leaning towards a category 1 or even stronger as I mentioned last night I think it will be more like a strong tropical storm with winds gust to hurricane force and those winds could be experienced all the way up and along the east coast. Good news is Hanna will be moving very rapidly once it gets to the Carolinas but it will dump a lot of rain from the Carolinas all the way up to New England and coastal areas will have to be on alert for strong tropical and hurricane force winds.

Of course the most important aspect of Hanna is what impact will it have on sporting events this weekend. When my friend ask me who I was picking for my NASCAR pick this weekend I told him Hanna… The Richmond race is in jeopardy of getting rained out Saturday night, you can follow the forecast here at RaceWeather.net. Also there are college football this weekend and being that AccuWeather is located in State College home of Penn St. Jesse Ferrel tackles the tough meteorological question, “Will Hanna Rain Out Penn State Game Saturday?” He also posted NASA video of Ike from the International Space Station. To me that is always cool.

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