WX-MAN's Musings

Ike became the ninth names storm of the 2008 Atlantic tropical season. Here is the information from the NHC 5 p.m. discussion:

SATELLITE IMAGES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED…CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THIS BASIS…THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IKE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE LOW SHEAR…IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND SIGNIFICANTLY THAN THE HWRF. THE LATTER MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE STORM IS ALREADY LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER…AS THE HIGH BUILDS FARTHER WESTWARD…THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST . THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TIGHT…THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH.

What is interesting about looking at some of the model tracks for Ike. Instead of taking the more historical and climatological path which would eventually have Ike bend north before it could hit the United States, it looks like with its interaction with Hanna might keep Ike going straight into Florida and eventually sneaking into the Gulf or as the GFDL has shown maybe make a turn to the south towards Hispaniola.

Eric Berger, the SciGuy, gives a nice historic perspective of the likelihood of an Ike making it into the Gulf and hitting Texas.

Since at least the year 1900, only one tropical storm has formed within 150 nautical miles of this tropical depression and tracked all the way to Texas. For most systems, it’s simply too far north for storms this far east of the continental United States.

Do you want me to tell you which Texas storm it was that formed relatively close to T.D. Nine? You really don’t, but I will. It was the 1915 Galveston Hurricane. It was just a wee little storm that struck Galveston on August 17 with 135 mph winds. The new seawall kept the death toll at about 200.

Reading the rest of Eric’s post it doesn’t seem like the odds are in favor of Ike making landfall in the United States but we have seen over the last few years that what we thWX-MAN’s Perspective › Create New Post — WordPressink should happen “Historically” sometimes doesn’t hold much water. Eric then goes on to point out a very fascinating stat.

According to Brian Brettscheider, of the 67 tropical storms that have passed within 150 miles of Tropical Depression Nine’s position since 1900, eight have made a U.S. landfall. That’s 12 percent.

Therefore, while this system will likely become a hurricane during the next week, it’s something Gulf Coast residents, at least, probably needn’t overly concern ourselves with.

All I can say is these next 10 to 15 days should be interesting. There is a wave that just moved off of Africa and the NHC notes that this areas has a high probability of tropical cyclone development:

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC…A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS…HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

So by the time I wake up early tomorrow morning we may have tropical depression 10 or Josephine. Should be for some fun and very active blogging. Keep in mind we are 10 days from the peak of the tropical season.

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