Gustav is a Hurricane & Strengthening, Time to Prepare!

Brian Neudorff @ 12:42 am August 30th, 2008 · No Comments

Current Gustv Satellite

Gustav returned to hurricane strength Friday afternoon after hammering Jamaica Thursday with landslides and flooding that killed 4 people. That raised Gustav’s overall toll to 71 lives after earlier deaths in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. [For More news Gustav News Click Here] The above image is a current satellite image of Gustav. As of the 11 p.m. satellite image (click here to see) it was beginning to form an eye. Gustav is becoming more organized and appears to be getting stronger now that it is over some very warm waters of the Caribbean. Maximum sustained winds were 80 mph making Gustav a category 1 hurricane as it moved through the Cayman islands. [NHC Gustav Forecast Discussion] [NHC Gustav Public Advisory]

It appears there has been little change in the forecasted path of Gustav. The NHC forecasted path continue to take Gustav over Cuba during the day and evening of Saturday then over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico Sunday with landfall occurring late Monday into early Tuesday in south central Louisiana. The NHC also states in their Forecast Discussion that Gustav is forecasted to be a major hurricane [Category 3 storm or stronger] when it makes landfall.

Google Earth Gustav modles

As far as the model guidance goes, it appears that they too are beginning to come to some consensuses on where landfall will occur late Monday into Tuesday. In the Google Earth map above I put push pins in two locations. The yellow is for New Orleans and the red is for Marsh Island which seems to be the overwhelming choice for first landfall.

So what does this mean for New Orleans? Who and when should someone evacuate if they live on the Gulf coast? Dr. Jeff Masters, co-found of Weather Underground and a meteorologist I turn to for insight in tropical weather, is making it clear to those who live in New Orleans, “It’s Time to Leave”

Today is the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s catastrophic hit on the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast. Unfortunately, I think that people living in New Orleans should mark the anniversary of Katrina by getting the heck out of the city. You live at the bottom of a bowl, much of it below sea level. While New Orleans must exist where it is, this is not natural. Nature wants to fill up this bowl with huge quantities of Gulf of Mexico sea water. There is a storm capable of doing that bearing down on you. If you live in New Orleans, I suggest you take a little Labor Day holiday–sooner, rather than later, to beat the rush–and get out of town. Gustav is going to come close to you, and there’s no sense messing with a major hurricane capable of pushing a Category 3 storm surge to your doorstep. Don’t test those Category 3 rated–but untested–levees. Conventional pre-Katrina wisdom suggested that the city needed 72 hours to evacuate. With the population about half of the pre-Katrina population, that lead time is about 60 hours. With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means that tonight is a good time to start evacuating–Saturday morning at the latest. Voluntary evacuations have already begun, which is a good idea.

Brendan Loy, the Pajamas Media “Weather Nerd” agrees with Dr. Jeff Masters and says the following, “…if I, personally, were in New Orleans, I think I would follow Dr. Masters’s advice, and get the hell out tonight.”

There are so many possibilities out there. So many different scenarios could play out before Gustav makes landfall. It could significantly weaken before reaching land or be in the middle of a eyewall cycle. It could, at the last minute move east or west and take a more “friendlier” path into less populated areas which would minimize the amount of damage or keep it from making a devastating blow on the city of New Orleans. With all that being said it looks very likely that the City of New Orleans will experience at least tropical storm force winds and possibly torrential rains. Brendan went on to explain why New Orleans is so susceptible to these kinds of dangers when it comes to tropical weather.

The reason for the present focus on New Orleans is not because the storm is uniquely likely to take that particular path, because that city is uniquely vulnerable to catastrophic flooding, and needs a longer evacuation lead time.Given the wide range of track and intensity possibilities, and the inherent uncertainty of hurricane forecasts beyond 24-36 hours or so, it is still far more likely, percentage-wise, that a calamity won’t strike New Orleans than that one will. But alas, that’s no reason not to evacuate, whether today or tomorrow. Forecasting technology is such that a calamitous direct hit is always going to be “unlikely” at the time when prudent evacuation decisions must be made in major cities. But the decisions still must be made.

You can read more over at his site…

To be honest I think anyone living in Texas near where Rita hit in 2005 through Louisiana and over to the Mississippi/Alabama boarder should have some plan in place and be prepared to use it. Plus, the way the tropics are getting ramped up in the coming days and weeks there is a good chance those I mentioned and those in Florida and the Eastern United States could be experiencing some kind of tropical storm or hurricane. Here are some sites to help everyone prepare for Gustav and the rest of this active hurricane season.

[American Red Cross Hurricane Gustave Online Newsroom] [Ready.gov Preparing for Hurricanes] [FEMA's Hurricane Gustav Page] [New Orleans Hurricane Center] [Emergency information for Louisiana Residence] [Houston, Texas Hurricane Central] [NHC Tracks Gustav] [UMCOR Prepares for Gustav]