Friday’s Brief Tropics Update

Brian Neudorff @ 1:06 pm August 29th, 2008 · No Comments

Current Gustv Satellite

I don’t have time for a full update, but Gustav is still a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph but the NHC is expecting intesification, and I think it could be very soon. Here is their take from the 11 a.m. EDT discussion.

GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV IS REGAINING ORGANIZATION NOW THAT ITS CENTER HAS EMERGED OVER WATER WEST OF JAMAICA. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT UNTIL WE RECEIVE NEW DATA FROM THE NEXT AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON…ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV IS ALREADY A LITTLE STRONGER. THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE MORE THAN 24 HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE…SO STRENGTHENING SEEMS IMMINENT AND COULD EVEN BE RAPID.

My own impressions of Gustav at first look I would have to concur and think Gustav will return to hurricane strength very shortly and it could be as early as the 2 p.m. update by the NHC.

Current Hanna Satellite

Hanna is also a tropical storm with sustain winds of 50 mph. Here is what the 11 a.m. EDT discussion from the NHC say about Hanna’s strengthening.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SOLUTION AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS… BRINING HANNA TO HURRICANE STATUS. THEREAFTER THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER HANNA… WHICH ONE WOULD THINK SHOULD HALT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR EVEN WEAKEN THE STORM. HOWEVER…NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW STRENGTHENING OR LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE DURING THAT TIME

I know from the last 12 hours of watching the satellite loops of Hanna it has looked impressive. I am going to spend a good portion of the rest of the day with my sons. For more information please visit the following sites and blogs: