That’s right Woodchuck Chuckers, it’s GROUNDHOG DAY!!! This is one of my favorite holidays. It’s just fun. I also love winter, so I am not too disappointed that Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow which means 6 more weeks of winter.

Groundhog Day grew out of what had essentially been a German superstition. German settlers brought with them the idea that if a hibernating animal casts a shadow Feb. 2 — the Christian holiday of Candlemas — winter will last another six weeks. If no shadow is seen, legend says spring will come early.

It’s pretty common for ‘ol Punxsutawney Phil to see his shadow. Of his 113 predictions, Phil has seen his shadow 99 times or 87% of the time with only 14 times he has predicted an early spring.

As far as Phil’s accuracy, if you ask the Inner Circle who takes care of Phil he is right 100% of the time but according to StormFax Weather Almanac, and records kept since 1887, Phil is right only 39% of the time.

Thanks to the 1993 movie staring Bill Murray, Punxsutawney Phil may be the best known of the Groundhogs but he isn’t the only furry forecaster making predictions on February 2nd. In fact, there are several across the United States and Canada and one right here in Western New York. Here is a short list of other known Groundhogs and their predictions for 2010.

• Dunkirk Dave (Dunkirk, NY) – Saw no Shadow, an early Spring
• Wiarton Willie (South Bruce Peninsula, Ontario CA) – Saw his Shadow, 6 more weeks of winter
• Staten Island Chuck – (Staten Island, NY) – Saw no Shadow, an early Spring
• Shubenacadie Sam (Nova Scotia CA) – Saw his Shadow, 6 more weeks of winter

Of course this is a very small list of all the Groundhog celebrations across North America, you can see more here at “Groundhog Central”

Of course as far as my official forecast for spring is that it will arrive March 20th but we all know here in Western New York that spring never arrives then but usually around mid April. Have a great day everyone.

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites

Tomorrow is February 2nd and it’s Groundhog day, and it’s time for my Groundhog Day Eve preview. Here are some facts about Punxsutawney Phil and Groundhog Day you should know.

WHO IS PHIL?:Punxsutawney Phil has been making weather prognostications every Feb. 2 in Punxsutawney, Pa., since 1886.

THE ORIGINS: Groundhog Day grew out of what had essentially been a German superstition. German settlers brought with them the idea that if a hibernating animal casts a shadow Feb. 2 — the Christian holiday of Candlemas — winter will last another six weeks. If no shadow is seen, legend says spring will come early.

WHERE IT HAPPENS: Punxsutawney is a town of about 6,100 people located about 65 miles northeast of Pittsburgh.

MORE INFORMATION: http://www.groundhog.org/ and you can watch the live forecast here: VisitPA.com

Punxsutawney Phil may be the most famous of the groundhogs but he’s not the only furry forecaster around. Here in Western New York we have two groundhog traditions. Dunkirk Dave and Ridge Lea Larry.

For more of Phil’s cousins you can check out Groundhog Central.

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites

I know I have not done much blogging as of late, but that is not entirely true. In fact, I blog every morning Monday through Friday over at the News 8 Weather Blog. There have been some lively conversations taking place. It all started with our Chief Meteorologist Scott Hetsko talking about “Climategate” with his post: “CLIMATEGATE” FRESHENS GLOBAL WARMING DEBATE. I followed up with my own $0.02 with CLIMATEGATE CLIMATOLOGIST SPEAKS OUT & MY 2 CENTS.

The other big topics have been snow or lack there of across western New York and primarily Rochester. In a lot of the comments we were getting people sound like they are ready to throw in the towel on winter and call it a wash but I tried to rally the snow lovers with this post, DON’T GIVE UP ON WINTER JUST YET and then Scott followed up with some interesting snow stats for winter if November & December don’t give us a foot or more of snow before January:  WANT A SNOWY WINTER? IT BETTER START SOON!

Since I am blogging everyday I will try and bring those post over to here, and feel free to comment on those topics and more on this or my stations site.

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites

The below post comes from WROC-TV News 8 Chief Meteorologist Scott Hetsko from the News 8 Weather Blog. Check it out everyday. It is updated every day.

Written By: Scott Hetsko

While watching my Yankees win their 27th title last night and the 7th under the Steinbrenner regime I began to wonder…is there a connection between Yankee titles and Rochester snow? The answer is of course not but hey let’s look at the numbers just for fun! If you want a snowy Winter, you should be happy the Yanks won last night. Below are the years the yankees won the series and amount of snow for us the following winter.

1977: 160.9″
1978: 138.5″
1996: 104.7″
1998: 111.6″
1999: 110.7″
2000: 58.1″
2009: ???

Average snowfall after Yankee title: 114.1″

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites

High Resolution (Credit: NOAA)

El Niño in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to be a dominant climate factor that will influence the December through February winter weather in the United States, according to the 2009 Winter Outlook released today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Such seasonal outlooks are part of NOAA’s suite of climate services.

“We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period,” says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “Warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn change the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and the U.S.”

“Other climate factors are also likely to play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”

• High Resolution (Credit: NOAA)

Highlights of the U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) include:

• Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across much of the western and central U.S., especially in the north-central states from Montana to Wisconsin. Though temperatures may average warmer than usual, periodic outbreaks of cold air are still possible.
• Below-average temperatures are expected across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic from southern and eastern Texas to southern Pennsylvania and south through Florida.
• Above-average precipitation is expected in the southern border states, especially Texas and Florida. Recent rainfall and the prospects of more should improve current drought conditions in central and southern Texas. However, tornado records suggest that there will also be an increased chance of organized tornado activity for the Gulf Coast region this winter.
• Drier-than-average conditions are expected in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.
• Northeast: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather in this region is often driven not by El Niño but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. These patterns are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance.
• California: A slight tilt in the odds toward wetter-than-average conditions over the entire state.
• Alaska: Milder-than-average temperatures except along the western coast. Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-median precipitation for most areas except above median for the northwest.
• Hawaii: Below-average temperatures and precipitation are favored for the entire state.

This seasonal outlook does not predict where and when snowstorms may hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. Visit http://www.noaa.gov.

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites

UPDATE 2:45pm EDT: AccuWeather.com Jesse Ferrell has posted the “Hidden Points” behind AccuWeather.com’s Winter Forecast for 2009-10.

Our winter forecast is out and (as always) I want to list out what I think are the most important points which may get lost in the fray. These come from a meeting I attended this morning where Joe Bastardi and Henry Margusity gave out some talking points and discussed the winter forecast at length (we uploaded a sneak peek video from this meeting to our Facebook Page).

Click here for Jesse’s the full post.

Note: Tomorrow morning NOAA releases their winter forecast for 2009-2010, I will post that too.

From AccuWeather.com: Bastardi Says Core of Winter from D.C. to Charlotte

According to AccuWeather.com’s Chief Meteorologist and Expert Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi, winter will be centered over an area from Maryland to the Carolinas as a fading El Niño results in the stormiest and coldest pattern in recent years.

Bastardi predicts the current El Niño will fade over the winter and will probably not have as much of a role in the overall weather pattern as one would think during a typical El Niño year. In July, Joe was the first to talk about how the fading El Niño will play a role in the winter forecast. This fading El Niño pattern will lead to a stormier and colder winter in the southern and eastern United States. While the El Niño is fading this winter, other factors are pointing to a winter very similar to that of 2002-2003.

A colder, snowier winter would mean added snow removal efforts, more travel delays and extended school closures, especially for the southern schools where snow and ice is predicted.

Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

The areas that will be hit hardest this winter by cold, snowy weather will be from southern New England through the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, including the Carolinas. Areas from Washington D.C. to Charlotte have had very little snowfall the past two winters. This season these areas could end up with above-normal snowfall.

Northern areas, including Buffalo, Boston and Maine, have been hit hard the past couple of winters, but will see normal snowfall with temperatures slightly below normal this winter.

However, the traditional lake-effect areas of western New York may see local variations of heavier snows. Bastardi adds that while these areas will have a normal winter, the areas farther south that have escaped from the snow and cold the past couple of winters will see the worst winter conditions in the form of snow and cold.

Cities such as New York, Boston and Philadelphia could get up to 75 percent of their total snowfall in two or three big storms.

While some parts of the Appalachians did have harsh winter weather in the form of ice last year, this winter could be one of the snowiest since 2002-2003, when up to 80 inches fell in many places. Snowfall totals this year could reach between 50 and 100 inches in the Appalachians.

Last winter, the usage of salt was way up because of the number of ice storms. Salt supplies could be compromised again this year for state and local road crews that battle the winter weather. On the other hand, ski resorts could have a great year with plenty of powder for skiers.

The storm track that could develop this year will bring storms into Southern California, then across the South and up the Eastern Seaboard. That track will lead to the normal amount of nor’easters from Cape Hatteras to New Jersey.

This type of storm track will differ from that of the past two years, when storms tended to take a track farther west from Texas into the Great Lakes. That track into the Great Lakes brought unseasonably mild weather to the major East Coast cities, keeping them on the rainy side of the storms.

The South

The track this year right along the Eastern Seaboard would put the major cities on the cold, wintry side of the storms. Areas form Atlanta to Charlotte could have several snowstorms this year, which is something that this region has not seen in a while.

The Interstate 20 corridor from Dallas to Atlanta will be a strike zone for ice and snow, given the storm track and proximity to cold air. By the end of the winter, people from Dallas to the Carolinas could say “Wow, we had snow this year!” said Bastardi.

Midwest and Plains

The Midwest and central Plains could get a break this winter, given that past couple of winters have been cold and snowy. Places such as Chicago, Omaha, Minneapolis and Kansas City may have below-normal snowfall and could even average a bit milder than past years.

However, Oklahoma into Texas will be where the cold will lead to ice and snow, and it is not out of the question that snow and ice are as far south as College Station and San Antonio, Texas.

West and Pacific Northwest

A warm and somewhat dry weather pattern is expected from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains. The typical barrage of winter storms that hit Seattle and Portland may not occur this winter, which would lead to below-normal precipitation.

The core of the wet weather will be south of San Francisco into southern California and the Southwest. While some people across Southern California fear the El Ni intense rains, mudslides and flooding as seen this fall.

For example, Los Angeles could have 110 percent of normal rainfall and the Sierra and Southwest mountains will have the normal amount of snowfall which is good for skiers.

The Olympics

The Olympics in Vancouver, British Columbia, from Feb.12 to 28 could be impacted by the lack of snow and cold weather this winter. It is possible that a dry and mild pattern will develop very near to or during the time of the Olympics.

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites

2009-2010 Farmers' Almanac Winter Forecast

Old Man Winter doesn’t want to give up his frigid hold just yet, but his hold will mostly be in the middle of the country.

According to the 2010 Farmers’ Almanac, this winter will see more days of shivery conditions: a winter during which temperatures will average below normal for about three-quarters of the nation.

A large area of numbingly cold temperatures will predominate from roughly east of the Continental Divide to west of the Appalachians (see map). The coldest temperatures will be over the northern Great Lakes and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. But acting almost like the bread of a sandwich, to this swath of unseasonable cold will be two regions with temperatures that will average closer to normal—theWest Coast and the East Coast.

What about snow/rain/ice?

Near-normal amounts of precipitation are expected over the eastern third of the country, as well as over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains, while drier-than-normal conditions are forecast to occur over the Southwest and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

Only the Central and Southern Plains are expected to receive above-average amounts of precipitation.

Blizzards?

While three-quarters of the country is predicted to see near- or below average precipitation this winter, that doesn’t mean there won’t be any winter storms! On the contrary, significant snowfalls are forecast for parts of every zone. For the Middle Atlantic and Northeast States, for instance, we are predicting a major snowfall in mid-February; possibly even blizzard conditions for New England (indeed, even shovelry is not dead).

What about spring and summer?

Find out when the first and last snowflakes may fall in your area by ordering a copy of the 2010 Farmers’ Almanac today.

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites

Yes believe it or not people are already searching for a forecast for the Winter of 2009-2010 and we haven’t finished the month of July yet. If you live in the Great Lakes or in the Northeast you are probably shaking your head and saying, “Winter!? I’m still waiting for summer to arrive.” I know a lot of my viewers and friend in Rochester, NY are thinking that. Then again, on the other side of the coin, if you live in the Pacific Northwest, the Southwest or even in Texas you are tired of the heat and the idea of an early winter may sound pretty good.

I am a little surprised by the interest in the winter forecast only because I normally see the activity pick up near mid to late August. Maybe it’s because the Atlantic Hurricane Season has yet to produce anything of any interest. I can tell you by this time last year I was blogging about the landfall of Hurricane Dolly.

If you are here looking for a winter forecast for 2009-2010 welcome, but I will tell you your not going to find very much at this point. In fact, as I did research for this post today I found several different ideas and preliminary outlooks on this upcoming winter. Most circulating around the development of El Niño.

The first forecast I saw was back around mid July, it came from AccuWeather.com’s Chief Meteorologist and Expert Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi in an article on the AccuWeather.com site headlined, “Bastardi Says Snowiest in Over 5 Years NYC to D.C. – Could the “Year Without True Summer” Mean the Coldest and Snowiest Winter in Over Five Years from New York City to Washington, D.C.?” In this article he talks about how cool the Northeast has been so far in what he is calling the “year without true summer” how historically these types of summers can lead to harsh winters.

“In years past, cooler summers have been followed by harsh winters. Temperatures in New York City did not top 85 degrees in June this year. There have only been three other times in recorded history when New York City failed to reach 85 in June. In each of those instances, snowy winters followed.”

From there he continues to talk about the rest of this summer and then what he sees right now for the upcoming winter, and briefly talks about developing El Niño. You can read the full post here…

Then there was an article I found today from the town I used to live and work in Erie, PA. On the local newspapers website, GoErie.com, there was an article, Erie area might receive milder winter weather written by John Guerriero. In this story, Mr. Guerriero reports that with a developing El Niño Erie will see a less snowy & mild winter, “The effects of El Nino could be felt in the Erie region with less snowfall than normal this winter and less rain than usual in late fall and early spring, said Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.”

I have to disagree with that statement a little. I worked as a meteorologist in Erie for nearly 5 years from Jan 8, 2003 until December, 31 2007 for WJET-TV. While I was there I took all the snow records going back to the winter of 1926-1927 and I averaged them and then averaged them with corresponding  El Niño & La Niña years and what I found was El Niño winters had an average snowfall of 95.9″ with a seasonal average of only 91.7″. The last three El Niño winters in Erie all produced 100+ inches of snow: 2002-03 = 143″ |2004-05 = 122.6″ | 2006-07 = 108.5″

The bottom line is it’s WAY TOO EARLY to say with any accuracy or detail what the winter may hold. We don’t know how strong this El Niño will get, and El Niño is not the only factor to consider when making a winter forecast. If you’re looking for a forecast I say be patient and keep coming back. As soon as I see a forecast I will post it here on this site.

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites