Temperatures for winter, December 2008 – February 2009, across the contiguous United States were near average, based on records dating back to 1895, according to a preliminary analysis by scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. For February 2009 alone, the average temperature was above the long-term average.

Winter Temperature Highlights

• The December 2008 – February 2009 average temperature was 33.49 degrees F, which is 0.53 degree F above normal.

• On a regional basis, temperatures were warmer than average across the southern tier states and central Rockies, while the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Maine, and Washington had a cooler-than-average winter.

• Based on NOAA’s Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index, the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand was 0.4 percent above average during winter.

  

  High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

February Temperature Highlights

• The average February temperature of 36.9 degrees F was 2.3 degrees F above the 20^th century average.

• February temperatures were above average across much of the country. Only parts of the Southeast, Northwest, and West experienced near-normal temperatures.

• Oklahoma and Texas had their ninth and 10^th, respectively, warmest February. Florida was the only state to experience a cooler-than-average temperature for the month.

• The contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand was 4.1 percent below average in February.

  

  High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

Winter Precipitation Highlights

• The United States experienced its fifth driest December-February period on record. Texas had its driest winter ever and the Southeast experienced its 10^th driest winter. Only the East-North-Central region (Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) had precipitation averages that were above normal.

• Twelve states (in the southern Plains, Southeast, and Northeast) had their 10^th driest, or drier, January-February period in the 1895-2009 record.

February Precipitation Highlights

• Precipitation across the contiguous United States in February averaged 1.40 inches, which is 0.62 inch below the 1901-2000 average and tied with February 1954 as the eighth driest February on record.

• Much of the country received below-average precipitation, resulting in the eighth driest February for the contiguous U.S. It was especially dry in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, where New Jersey and Delaware had their driest February on record.

• At the end of February, 24 percent of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor.  Severe-to-extreme drought conditions continued in the western Carolinas, northeast Georgia, the southern Plains, and parts of California and Hawai’i, with exceptional drought in southern Texas.

• About 20 percent of the contiguous United States had moderately-to-extremely wet conditions at the end of February, according to the Palmer Index (a well-known index that measures both drought intensity and wet spell intensity). This is about three percent less than at the end of January.

Other Highlights

• January-February 2009 was the driest, first two month-period in the 1895-2009 record for the contiguous United States. Precipitation across the nation averaged 2.69 inches for January-February.

• NOAA satellite observations of snow cover extent showed 6.7 million square miles of North America were covered by snow in February 2009, which is 0.1 million square miles above the 1966-2009 average of 6.6 million square miles.

NCDC’s preliminary reports, which assess the current state of the climate, are released soon after the end of each month. These analyses are based on preliminary data, which are subject to revision. Additional quality control is applied to the data when late reports are received several weeks after the end of the month and as increased scientific methods improve NCDC’s processing algorithms.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

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Across most of the United States people have already pulled out their shovels and snow blowers as winter weather storms returned for another season. Winter is here, and it began right on schedule–December 1. That’s right. That’s the official start of the winter season and how official weather records are kept. Weather-wise, winter does not begin on December 21, as many calendars claim.

What most people usually refer to as winter is what’s really known as astronomical winter. This type of winter starts at the winter solstice, winter officially arrived at 7:04 a.m. EST Dec. 21, 2008. The Winter Solstice is the day when the distance between the Tropic of Capricorn and the sun is the shortest. Because of the earth’s tilt, the Northern Hemisphere is leaning farther away from the sun than at any other time during the year. This makes the Winter Solstice the shortest day in the Northern Hemisphere.

What many people don’t know is that there’s another kind of winter called “meteorological winter,” and the further north you live the earlier it arrives. For meteorologist and other weather observers, meteorological winter is the three month period of December, January, and February. In northern locations, meteorological winter begins long before the winter solstice. Meteorological winter is based on sensible weather, like when snow and ice fall, while astronomical winter is based on the position of the Earth in its orbit around the sun. The start of astronomical winter is the same everywhere, but the start of meteorological winter changes depending on how far north you live.

So, don’t think winter arrived December 21. It’s been here. It started right on time on December 1. Just ask the millions of people across the USA who’ve had to dig out of several inches of snow, drive on snow and ice covered roads and had to stay warm during very cold days.

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In announcing the 2008-2009 U.S. Winter Outlook for meteorological winter from December through February, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are calling for warmer-than-normal temperatures for much of the central part of the nation, and a continuation of drier-than-normal conditions across the Southeast.

With the absence of La Niña and El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean this season (climate patterns that give forecasters clues about potential weather events months in advance), predicting weather patterns on seasonal timescales becomes increasingly challenging. Instead, other climate patterns over the Arctic and North Atlantic regions may play a significant role in influencing U.S. winter weather.

“These patterns are only predictable a week or two in advance and could persist for weeks at a time,” said Michael Halpert, deputy director, Climate Prediction Center. “Therefore, we expect variability, or substantial changes in temperature and precipitation across much of the country.”

Regional Outlooks

· Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation.

· Southeast: Increased chance of above normal temperatures in the central and western parts, along with below-normal precipitation.

· Central Region: Increased chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures, with above- normal precipitation anticipated in parts of the central Plains.

· Western Region: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures, and an enhanced likelihood of below-normal precipitation across parts of the Southwest.

· Alaska: Milder-than-normal temperatures except along the southern coast. Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation.

· Hawaii: Above- normal temperatures for eastern Hawaii and below-normal temperatures for western Hawaii. There are equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation throughout the state.

The U.S. Winter Outlook does not include a snowfall forecast. Snow forecasts are heavily dependent upon winter storms and are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.

Prepare for winter weather through NOAA Watch, http://www.noaawatch.gov. The site gives you the latest weather patterns, forecasts and warnings issued by NOAA’s National Weather Service. Also, tune in to NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards to get your up-to-the-minute local forecast and warnings.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

On the Web:

NOAA’s 2008-2009 U.S. Winter Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

Winter Weather Safety Information: http://www.noaawatch.gov/themes/winter.php

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First of all I want to apologize for my lack of updates here at WX-Man.com after a surge of tropical and winter forecast posts during the months of August and September, I lost the drive to blog and was having a hard time coming up with ideas others would find interesting. Unfortunately this blog has suffered because of many changes in my life this year. One of the reasons this blog has suffered is my move from Erie to Rochester.

WX-Man.com started as just a way for me to stay disciplined during the days I didn’t do weather when I was the weekend meteorologist at WJET-TV in Erie, PA. I started off just talking about local Erie weather and occasionally mention a national or international weather story. Then in 2005, I got caught up blogging constantly about tropical weather and also feeding the demand for Winter Weather forecasts. From there the site took off. It appears now that during my time in Erie I had a lot more free time than I do here in Rochester.

Now that I am living in Rochester, NY and my station has its own weather blog I have had a hard time finding a new focus for my site. Back in Erie when I was having a hard time finding an idea or topic I would just talk about local weather, but with WROC having its own weather blog focusing on Rochester and Western New York weather, that is not as simple because I don’t want to compete with my employer when it comes to weather blogs. Now I know those who follow me from Erie could say, “Come back to your roots and talk about Erie weather.” I will be honest I have thought about that, but because I don’t live in Erie anymore I think my posts would lose that personal feel I tried to incorporate when I talked about Erie and its weather.

So now, after 10 months of trying to figure out a new direction for WX-Man.com on my own, I am looking for some ideas and suggestions from those who read this. Because the title of this site is WX-Man’s Perspective I have thought of adding more of my other interests to this site. Injecting more of my personality and occasionally other topics that are not weather related. Make this site more of a representation of who I am than just the weather side of me. So, I am looking some good ideas and suggestions. Feel free to leave your thoughts and if there are weather topics that you would like to know more about ask then I could have more ideas to talk about. I really want more reader interaction. That is also an area I have failed when it comes to this site.

Thank you all in advance and look forward to ALL of your ideas.

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As I wait to see what the NWS and NOAA put out for their Winter Forecast for 2008-2009, I realize I am slow on the draw with AccuWeather.com’s Winter Forecast. I was on vacation and to be honest been to busy with family to find time to blog… Here is the 2008-2009 preliminary Winter Forecast from AccuWeather.com:

JOE BASTARDI’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST

AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi today released his 2008 temperature and precipitation impacting the nation. His forecast calls for one of the coldest winters in several years across much of the East.

The core of cold was centered across the Great Plains last year but is expected to be farther east this year. Bastardi says the winter of 2008-2009 will be viewed as the hardest in several years. in the East. It will put some

“In the eastern half of the nation, people will look at the winter as bookends of cold,” Bastardi said. He says the overall colder and snowier winter will be off to a cold start in December with perhaps the roughest winter month for much of the nation. It may finish with another cold spell in late January and February.

Between the bookends of cold, Bastardi expects “the January thaw of old winter lore” but it will offer only a temporary break to consumers. “The winter as a whole in the population-dense eastern third of the nation will be a one-two punch of higher heating prices and lower temperatures. Given this economic environment, the winter could push some homeowners to the brink, residences as warm as last winter could spend hundreds of dollars more this heating season.

Temperatures across most of the West will be warmer than last year and should be warmer than normal, which will help consumers by keeping heating cost increases in check. The northern Rockies and Northwest will still have more snow than normal but not as much as last year, where some locations developed a snow pack that reached twice normal levels.

The Great Plains was blasted by snow last year and many communities ran very low on salt to keep roads clear of ice. Despite the elevated cost of salt this winter season, these areas will receive a break in the form of less snow than last year. Unfortunately, the East will not turn out as lucky, as more snowfall than last year is expected.

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For many of us, summer comes to an end with the Labor Day holiday, when school is back in session and with the kickoff of football season but summer doesn’t official come to an end until the sun passes directly over the equator as the Northern Hemisphere begins to tilt away from the sun. The sun will be directly over the equator at 11:44 a.m. EDT. The sun’s direct rays will continue to migrate south until reaching the Tropic of Capricorn, in the southern hemisphere, on the first day of winter.

(Climate Prediction Center OFFICIAL forecast Jan. Feb. March)

With summer ending and winter just around the corner all eyes are on what Winter will bring. I will be honest it is still WAY TO EARLY to know what the winter will bring and even when a winter forecast is issued it is more of a generalization than an actual forecast.

Going into the winter of 2008-2009 it looks like the El Niño will generally be neutral or as some might like to call it a “La Nada” So with no significant El Niño or La Niña does that mean our winter will be “Normal?” Unfortunately, no, it just means that we take one player off the field but there will be other factors to look at, plus a El Niño or La Niña could develop and then that would change the overall forecast. The graphics above are from the Climate Prediction Center and their OFFICIAL forecast for January, February and March. They are calling for most of the country to be above normal temperature and near average for precipitation. You can read more in the Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Forecast Discussion (Warning it is technical)

Astro Met Seasonal Forecast page | Oregon State Winter Forecast Page (No Forecast this year) | WSAZ.com West Virginia 2008-2009 Winter Outlook | Steamboat Springs Folklore Forecasts | UK The Weather Outlook Autumn Forecast for Europe |

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PLEASE READ BEFORE SCROLLING DOWN

UPDATE 08/27/08: Greetings to everyone looking for the 2008-2009 Winter forecast. Feel free to leave questions and I will do my best to answer. I can tell you the Old Farmer’s Almanac is usually one of the earliest ones, in fact, this year they were earlier than their two previous years. This is not MY forecast, nor do I endorse this forecast, but I know many people like the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac forecasts so I post them.

Every year at this time I go looking for all Winter forecast I can find and then post them here. Kind of a one stop shop if you will. Eventually I will put out my own forecast for the region I am living and working in. The last 3 years it has been in Erie, PA this year I am Rochester, NY.

I am currently and actively blogging the active 2008 tropical season. Please visit my most recent posts on Gustav and the other tropical systems.

Click the map to select your region (or see the Canadian regions):

1 ~ 2 ~ 3 ~ 4 ~ 5 ~ 6 ~ 7 ~ 8 ~ 9 ~ 10 ~ 11 ~ 12 ~ 13 ~ 14 ~ 15 ~ 16 ~ 17 ~ 18

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