As of 11am EDT, hurricane Irene was a category 2 storm with sustain winds of 105 mph and gust of 125 mph. Just because Irene is weaker doesn’t mean if you live along the east coast you shouldn’t take this storm seriously. From the National Hurricane Center 11am EDT forecast discussion:

IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS…STORM SURGE FLOODING…AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

Just because Irene doesn’t have the same kind of strength it did earlier in the week, and is not likely to strengthen much more before it gets to North Carolina. (Note: It still has to cross the Gulf Stream so intensification can’t be ruled out and if Irene does strengthen no one should be surprised despite current forecast trend) Here is Dr. Jeff Masteres from Wunderground.com thought on Irene’s forecast with regard to storm surge:

With its eyewall collapsed and just 24 more hours over water before landfall, it is unlikely Irene will have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday, and a rapidly weakening Category 1 hurricane at its second landfall in New England on Sunday. However, since Irene is such a huge storm–tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center–it has set a massive amount of the ocean’s surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 9:30am EDT this morning, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 1) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene rated a 5.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should gradually decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene’s winds. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. At those times, Irene is expected to be near the NC/VA border, then close to Long Island, NY, respectively. Thus, storm surge damage rivaling that experienced during Hurricane Isabel in 2003 is likely in northern NC, southern Maryland, and up Chesapeake Bay on Saturday night. It looks like Irene will pass New Jersey during low tide, which may limit the storm surge inundation to 3 – 6 feet there. Coastal New England from New York City to Massachusetts may also see storm surges characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane during Sunday morning’s high tide, even if Irene has weakened to a tropical storm. I continue to give a 20% chance that a storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday.

Dr. Masters also goes on to point out that the wind damage from Irene should “be similar to that wrought by some of the strongest Nor’easters of the past 20 years, from Virginia northwards to New York City.” it appears that most of the hurricane force winds with Irene are on the right (eastern) side of the storm and by the time Irene makes it to Virgina, Maryland and Delaware there will no hurricane force winds on the left side (western) of Irene. Power outages and tree damage look to be the biggest threat from winds with Irene with some structural damage to building that you would see in the strongest Nor’easters.

Another major threat with Irene appears to be fresh water flash flooding. Irene is expected to bring rains in excess of 8″ to a 100-mile-wide swath from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City. Places like southeastern Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey and southeastern New York have the biggest threat of flash flood and river flooding due to record amounts of rain they have experienced this August. This has already been the 6th wettest August on record for New Jersey.

Tornadoes can’t be ruled out with Irene, even Bob back in 1991, the last hurricane to affect New England spawned six tornadoes ranging from F0 to F1.

For more updates follow me on Twitter – @BrianNeudorff and also subscribe to my weather twitter list of various meteorologist and weather sources.

HURRICANE IRENE RESOURCES:
Wunderground Blog by Dr. Jeff Masters (I read his blog a lot during Hurricane Season) | National Hurricane Center Track & Information on Irene | Skeetobite Weather | Charleston, SC Meteorologist WXBrad | AccuWeather Meteorologist Jesse Ferrell | Hurricane Spaghetti Models | Weather Nerd | Meteorological Musings | Irene Satellite | Eric Berger SciGuy Blog |

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites

For some reason when the calendar officially says spring the idea of winter weather, especially snow, becomes foreign to us. Our minds quickly can’t fathom the idea that it could actually snow It’s moments like this where our knowledge and memory of weather becomes more selective. I have been a meteorologist for 10 years and it never fails either on the day spring arrives or shortly there after there always seems to be a winter storm.

The ugly truth is that this kind of weather (just like we see in late November and early December before winter arrives) is perfect for developing storms that produce snow, and for some, severe weather. You have a clash of season. With more sunlight and solar radiation the temperatures to the south begin to increase and it wants to spread northward. After months of darkness to the north there’s still plenty of cold and these two air masses begin to clash.

Where these two air masses come together is where you find the path of storms and all the ingredients for major storm systems to develop. That is the case with a storm system moving through and out of the Plains and headed through the Great Lakes into New England.

A swath of moderate snow will spread from North Dakota, through Minnesota, Wisconsin into Michigan, across the Great Lakes and into Western and Central New York before ending in southern parts of New England. This will be a mess for many trying to go about their day on Wednesday. For those who get the snow during the day, with the higher sun angle and increased solar radiation, most roads should remain slightly snow covered to just wet because of the energy making its way to the surface. It’s at night as colder air arrived behind this system when slick roads and icy patches could become a problem.

Here in western New York a general 3 to 6 inches is likely for most. At times this snow could be a heavy wet snow but as temperatures fall and hang in the mid to upper 20s that could make the consistency of the snow a little less wet and a little more fluffy.

The heaviest snow will fall in the higher elevations through southern Wyoming and Livingston counties. Here 4 to 8 inches of snow are possible. As you go farther south near the NY/PA border there will be a mix of snow, sleet and possible rain. That will diminish amounts but still cause some problems. Many of these places are either under a winter weather advisory or winter storm warning.

At least through the end of March, it looks like a good part of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast could be seeing more winter-like weather than typical spring. Polar jet from the north will not let go and continue to provide fresh colder than average air. This will also make for a stormy pattern.

The storm we are seeing Tuesday night into Wednesday is only one of many that is expected to impact the Great Lakes, Mid Atlantic and the Northeast. It looks like there could be another system in the works for this weekend. Stay tuned.

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites

Here are a few photos I got tonight of the “Super Moon” at Perigee. It was very bright and watched it rise for about an hour. It was crystal clear in western New York. I have a few more uploaded to Flickr.

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites

Did you know tonight we are expecting to see something “super”? Yes a “Super moon.” But what makes this moon so “super”?

Tonight, March 19th, will be a full moon, and not all full moons are the same. Full Moons vary in size and brightness due to the oval shape of the Moon’s orbit. It is an ellipse with one side about 31,000 miles closer to Earth than at its farthest point. When the moon is at its closest point we call this Perigee and when it is at its farthest point it is referred to as apogee. Diagram Here.

What makes tonight’s full moon so special is that it will occur less than one hour away from perigee–a near-perfect coincidence. The moon will be just over 211,000 miles away and this perigee moon will be the closest in some 20 years. That is why many astronomers are calling this moon a “Super Perigee” moon.

The good news for a large part of the northeast is that the skies will be clear, especially here in Rochester and western New York. If you want to get the “full effect” the “super moon” it is best to see this as the moon rises in the east at 7:45 PM EDT. This is when the “moon illusion” will add extra effect to the viewing. The “Moon illusion” is not fully understood by astronomers or psychologists, but low-hanging moons look unnaturally large when they beam through trees, buildings and other foreground objects. The next “Super Perigee” won’t occur until the year 2029.

Now there have been rumor circulating around the internet and even posts from some saying the “Super Perigee Moon” is what triggered the Japan quake and tsunami and that is not the case. The gravitational affect will be very small and will only have a slight impact on tides, called Perigee Tides.

Perigee tides are nothing to worry about, according to NOAA. In most places, lunar gravity at perigee pulls tide waters only an inch or so higher than usual. The last “practically super moon” occurred in December of 2008 and nothing happened then.

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites

I know like me many of you have been clued to the coverage of this magnitude 8.9 quake that shook northern Japan and then caused a devastating tsunami.

A tsunami forms when a strong earthquake like we saw in Japan and rubs against plates. The plates in this part of the world (unlike California, where the slide against each other) go over and under each other. When pressure finally break you get the crust violently displacing upwards and this causes the massive wave.

The tsunami was worst in Japan cause it was getting the full force of the displaced water. As the wave moves away it does get smaller but we are still talking about the potential of a 3 to 6 feet rise in water up and down the west coast and Alaska.

As I write this it is 7:30am PST (10:30am EST) places like Oregon and Washington will soon start to experience the water rise.

Keep in mind when you hear “wave” it is not like the waves we typically see along the shore of the Great Lakes or even the ocean on any given day. These are waves or almost a surge of water. It appears these tsunami waves are coming in waves, where there will be rises and falls and rises and fall an oscillation as the ripple finally makes it to shore.

Along the west coast I wouldn’t expect damage to be high like they saw in Japan but no one really knows what a wave like this can do.

I have already seen comments about solar flares and the moon. I am not versed enough on answering those on my own so before I can comment I will have to do some research and would welcome any links to sites that explain what you are seeing. We will keep you updated and if you have any questions we will do our best to answer them. This is more of a geological event than weather but if we don’t know we will find the answers.

BBC Japan Quake News, Photos & Videos

BBC Wave Map

BBC Why Was the Wave So Big?

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites

Storm system moving out of the Ohio Valley bring flooding concern through the Midwest, including Ohio where many rivers and streams are already above flood level. The flooding concern spreads into the Northeast later today and Sunday.

Although many river and streams are below flood stage in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast the ground, for many, is still frozen or snow covered. This will prevent the ground from absorbing the water and allowing it to wash in to area streams combined with snow melt the concern for flooding is high.

The potential is there for some areas in New England to see 2 to 3 inches of liquid precipitation. Flood watches stretch from Tennessee all the way up to New York State with Flood warnings issued through Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Listen to your local media outlet for any flooding and if you come across any flooded roadways. Turn around, find an alternate route. Water may appear shallow but it only takes a foot of fast moving water to sweep a car off a road and downstream.

Along with the rain, parts of western New England could receive some wintry weather in the form of snow. 3 to 6 inches of snow could fall in parts of western and central New York and as you head into northern New York, and northern Vermont some places could see 6 to 12 inches of snow.

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites

I will have more on Phil and other Groundhogs later this morning. I hope they know what is good for them and forecast an early spring.

Well for those who track Punxsutawney Phil. He emerged and did NOT see his shadow. That means he is predicting an early spring. Here is some more information on Groundhog Day…

WHO IS PHIL?:Punxsutawney Phil has been making weather prognostications every Feb. 2 in Punxsutawney, Pa., since 1886.

THE ORIGINS: Groundhog Day grew out of what had essentially been a German superstition. German settlers brought with them the idea that if a hibernating animal casts a shadow Feb. 2 — the Christian holiday of Candlemas — winter will last another six weeks. If no shadow is seen, legend says spring will come early.

WHERE IT HAPPENS: Punxsutawney is a town of about 6,100 people located about 65 miles northeast of Pittsburgh.

MORE INFORMATION: http://www.groundhog.org/

Punxsutawney Phil may be the most famous of the groundhogs but he’s not the only furry forecaster around. Here in Western New York we have two groundhog traditions. Dunkirk Dave and Ridge Lea Larry.

For more of Phil’s cousins you can check out Groundhog Central.

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites

In my professional opinion of all the winter types of precipitation ice is the worst of them all. Ice can cause massive power outages. It only takes a glaze of about a quarter of an inch of ice to weigh down power lines causing them to sag and break. Not to mention the glaze of ice it puts down on area roadways. When it comes to an “Icy Mix” there are two types, sleet and freezing rain. Sleet is not as bad and doesn’t coat power lines. Sleet is more of an ice pellet. Freezing rain on the other hand is what we all think of when it comes to an ice storm. Freezing rain actually falls through the atmosphere as a liquid only to go through a very shallow layer of air at or below freezing. This layer is so shallow and so thin the water doesn’t have time to refreeze until it makes contact with items in this below freezing layer like cars, houses roads and power lines. This is a major concern for those in Oklahoma, Missouri, Southern Illinois, into Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania including the cities of Oklahoma City, St Louis, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus and Pittsburgh. Everything else to the north looks to be in the form of snow.

Of course winter weather is not the only concern with this storm, but also a threat of severe storms in the south and into the southeast. This storm as you can see will have a wide range of impact and if you are under any of these advisories, watches or warnings please listen to local media outlets for the latest weather information specific for your area. I will pass along any and all interesting weather I find but I can not forecast and update every location. Especially since I will be working a lot since here in western NY we could see anywhere from 10 to 15 inches of snow if not more.

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites

The same storm system that brought several inches of snow and ice that caused extensive power outages, travel delays, state of emergencies all across the southeastern part of the United States, along with the storm system that brought extensive amounts of snow across the US Plains and Midwest will merge Tuesday night to bring a large swath of snow across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

For large parts of New York and Pennsylvania a general 3 to 6 inches of snow will fall across the region. Some location will see more due to location and stronger embedded bands. The true beast of this storm will occur overnight into early Wednesday morning when a new storm develops off the coast of New Jersey and then continues to rapidly strengthen as it moves up into New England.

The above graphic is from AccuWeather.com – this is a pretty good estimate and forecast of what people in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast should see once this storm passes Thursday evening. If you live in western New York like I do then you can get an idea of what my station and fellow meteorologist are thinking in our News 8 Weather Blog. We pretty much agree with the assesment of 3 to 6 inches with more snow likely along the shorelines of Lake Ontario thanks to lake enhancement and eventually lake effect snow showers going into Thursday.

For the rest of the Northeast from New York City, up into Boston if you have travel plans to or through those locations I would be prepared and anticipate flight delays and even cancellations. A foot or more of snow is likely through a good chunk of coastal New England and even possible for NYC with 6 to 12 inches possible there. Let’s just hope NYC can handle this snow better than they did the post Christmas Blizzard of 2010.

Currently there are numerous Winter Weather Advisories posted through out the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic with winter storm warnings issued for those closes to the center of the storm through New Jersey, Eastern NY and up through New England. There are even a few Blizzard warnings posted for coastal Massachusetts. For the definitions of what a Winter Weather Advisory, Winter Storm Warning and Blizzard Warnings are check out this specially made page here on WX-Man.com

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites

The first story come out of Abu Dhabi. Apparently scientists there created 52 artificial rain storms in the desert this past summer. This now not so secret project to control the weather in the Middle East cost 11 million dollars. It involved putting ionizers that looked like lampshades out in the desert. These ionizer created negatively charged ions that rose with the hot air, attracted dust. Then any moisture in the air would then stick to the dust (these kind of aerosol particles are needed to create clouds). The moisture condensing onto the dust particles would form clouds, lots of clouds that would later rain out.

Obviously bringing rain to a desert where rain is hard to come by makes sense if you want to make crops and not rely on outside sources for food. Of course many people could think of a lot of ways to use weather modification. I have said this numerous times on this blog, I am not a fan of weather modification. There are just things we should leave alone and this would be one of them. When you start trying to control what I consider the uncontrollable bad things can happen even though I understand a lot of the why’s behind doing it.

Of course the other story may or may not have anything to do with weather, although it has been used as a possible theory. From Arkansas to Louisiana thousands of red-winged blackbirds have fallen from the sky just days apart. This on top of 100,000 fish over a 20-mile stretch of the Arkansas River near a dam in Ozark , 125 miles west of where the birds fell dead. The fish were discovered on Dec. 30.

It appears that the cause of death in Arkansas for the birds is currently being ruled due to stress:

“Loud noises were reported shortly before the birds began to fall from the sky,” the commission’s statement said, adding that blackbirds seldom fly at night. “The blackbirds were flying at rooftop level instead of treetop level” to avoid explosions above, according to Karen Rowe, an ornithologist with the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission. “Blackbirds have poor eyesight, and they started colliding with things.”

The reason that I mention this as a weather story is that there was severe weather in the area on New Year’s Eve. So the loud sound could have been from thunder. Many have discounted thunder because the storms had moved out of the area but thunder and lightning can continue and be heard even after a storm passes. That’s why they tell people to wait 30 minutes after the last lightning strike before going outside.

The same occurrence took place on Monday in Louisiana. Again it was red-winged black birds that were found littering the ground and their death a mystery. What are your thoughts on why this happened. Is it natural or something more. I am waiting for someone to claim HAARP.

UPDATE ON LOCAL ROCHESTER WEATHER:
I guess I need to update our local weather. Not much change here. The light snow today will be just that. Some will get a coating maybe an inch. Some places will see little or even none as the clipper passes to our north. I think our best shot for some snow (only an inch or 2) comes when the cold front associated with the clippers passes later this afternoon and evening.

The next clipper will also bring a couple of inches of nuisance snow. (What is nuisance snow? I classify it as an inch to maybe four inches. Something that can cause slick spots but not enough to warrant an advisory.) Then behind that system as a new storm takes over along the east coast into New England, colder air will arrive. Highs will be in the mid 20s as lows are in the teens and some lake effect or even lake enhancement is possible in the wake. It should be too much but we will have to wait and see how it plays out.

Bookmark to:

Hide Sites