WX-MAN's Musings

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Although weaker that it was earlier today, Earl is still a very large,  major hurricane at a category 3 with sustained maximum winds of 115 mph. Earl continues to move north at 18 mph and is 180 miles south of Cape Hatteras, NC. Eventually it will make a turn to the north-northeast. When it makes this turn this evening or tonight will determine how close it gets to the Outer Banks. I still think it closes in about 50-100 miles east of the Outer Banks.

From there it will weaken some more over colder waters and quickly move to the north-northeast around 20-23 mph. Gusty winds and rain could impact parts of Mid-Atlantic coast. Most of what will be experienced from Virginia up to southern New England will be tropical storm conditions.

The next concern is does Earl pass just east of Cape Cod like it should with the North Carolina Outer Banks or will it’s center cross over the cape. The National Hurricane Center give the likelihood of Cape Cod experiencing hurricane conditions 20 to 30 percent. Part of me thinks it is a little more like 30 to 50 percent but we will have to wait and see how Earl interacts with the trough beginning to build into the eastern United States.

As my friend and amateur meteorologist Brendan Loy begin_of_the_skype_highlighting     end_of_the_skype_highlighting points out on his blog, “…it’s important to emphasize that Hurricane Earl is not a point on the map, but a broad storm system with a geographically large wind field. The exact course of the eye is important, especially for storm surge purposes, because the strongest winds and most damaging surge — especially when it reaches New England, by which point its forward speed will be accelerating, even as its rotational winds decrease — will be in the storm’s right-front quadrant.”

Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles out from Earl’s center with tropical storm force winds extending outwards of 205 miles. All along the east coast will feel Earl’s impact one way or another. From Jeff Masters’ WunderGround.com Blog

Regardless of Earl’s exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves today and Friday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 – 15 feet in offshore waters. Waves are expected to reach 25 – 30 feet along the Cape Hatteras, North Carolina shore tonight. Beach erosion damage in the mid-Atlantic states will likely run into the millions[.]

Hurricane Earl Resources – [NHC Earl Tracker] [NOAA Earl Satellite Images] [NHC Earl Public Advisory] [NHC Earl Forecast Discussion] [Earl Model Plots] [NOAA Buoy Observations] [NOAA tidal gauges] [StormPulse.com] [Wunderground.com Earl Resources] [Skeetobite Weather Earl Forecast Intensity and Path] [AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center] [AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center]

North Carolina Resources - [Morehead City, NC Radar] [Morehead City, NC NWS Office] [Carolina Coast Online] [Google News]

More great insight in the following weather blogs – [Dr. Jeff Masteres Wunderground Blog] [Houston Chronicles SciGuy Eric Berger] [Brendan Loy - Sullivan's Travelers] [AccuWeather.com Weather Matrix Blog] [RaceWeather.net Tropics Discussion out of Texas]

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Hurricane warnings have been posted from Bogue Inlet, NC up to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Hurricane watches are posted from the North Carolina/Virginia border north to Cape Henlopen, DE. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect from Cape Fear, NC to Bogue Inlet. As of 2pm EDT Earl remains a very large and powerful hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles out from Earl’s center with tropical storm force winds extending out 200 miles. Although it was downgraded from a category 4 (135 mph sustained winds) to a category 3 (125 mph sustained winds) this morning it appears it is gaining strength and could return to category 4 strength later today or tonight.

Over the last 24 hours, there’s been very little change in overall forecast path for Earl. As you can see above most of the computer models are in agreement and keep the center of Earl just east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. I still think my original forecast of Earl’s center passing within 100 miles of the Outer Banks looks good. Just because the center may not pass right over the Outer Banks doesn’t mean they won’t feel the effects of Earl or hurricane force winds. The way things currently, it won’t have to be a direct hit for the Outer Banks to experience hurricane conditions.

As Brendan Loy points out over at Sullivan’s Travelers, “The reality is, this storm needs to make a series of “turns” over the next several days — from NW to NNW, from NNW to N, from N to NNE — and until we see those turns actually happen, we can’t be certain of where it will end up. Small wobbles, or minor changes in turns’ timing, can have big consequences down the road.” An hour or two change delay in those turns compared to forecast can mean hundreds of miles off from where Earl actually goes compared to where it was forecasted to go.

Tropical storm force winds are expected to affect the North Carolina coast starting Thursday afternoon with hurricane force winds expected in the warning area late Thursday night into early Friday morning.

Once Earl passes North Carolina it is forecasted to be head northeast towards Cape Cod. Most of the Mid-Atlantic coast, if Earl stays on the forecasted path, would get high waves and strong gusty winds of 30 to 50 mph. More likely tropical storm force or less. As it approaches Long Island and the New England coast, Earl will be moving at about 20 mph to the northeast and downgraded to a category 1 or 2 hurricane. Current forecasts have Earl passing 100 miles east of Long Island and about 50-100 miles east of Cape Cod. This would be late Friday night early Saturday morning and hurricane force winds would probably extend out 20 to 30 miles from the center. This could mean Cape Cod wouldn’t experience hurricane conditions but it is still to early to make that call.

So much of these forecast with hurricanes are depended on them doing what we forecast them to do and we all know that even the best forecasts can be off. Just being off by a couple of miles can mean the difference of 10 mph for a certain location or the difference between tropical storm force winds or a category 1 hurricane. If you live in any of the shaded white areas shown in the above graphic that means you need to constantly monitor local media for constant forecast updates, and be prepared for the possibility that the current forecast could change and that you may need to take action. As I quoted Ben Franklin yesterday, “An once of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” Because sometimes with these systems you just never know and a wobble here or a wobble there can completely change a forecast.

Hurricane Earl Resources – [NHC Earl Tracker] [NOAA Earl Satellite Images] [NHC Earl Public Advisory] [NHC Earl Forecast Discussion] [Earl Model Plots] [NOAA Buoy Observations] [NOAA tidal gauges] [StormPulse.com] [Wunderground.com Earl Resources] [Skeetobite Weather Earl Forecast Intensity and Path] [AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center] [AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center]

More great insight in the following weather blogs – [Dr. Jeff Masteres Wunderground Blog] [Houston Chronicles SciGuy Eric Berger] [Brendan Loy begin_of_the_skype_highlighting     end_of_the_skype_highlighting - Sullivan's Travelers] [AccuWeather.com Weather Matrix Blog] [RaceWeather.net Tropics Discussion out of Texas]

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Hurricane Earl, which has maintained it’s category 4 strength (max sustained winds 135 mph) since yesterday evening, looks to be weakening some as it goes through an eyewall replacement cycle. Another sign of weakening could because it is experiencing some wind shear on its western side. It is evident in the image above. The western side of Earl looks almost flat not round. Should be interesting to see how this might impact Earl and its strength later this afternoon and evening. As of 11am EDT, the National Hurricane Center forecasted Earl to maintain category 4 strength before getting caught up in the shear. Maybe it is happening sooner than they expected.

As far as the path of Earl, with each run of the computer models and update from the National Hurricane Center it keeps bringing the storm closer to east coast of the United States, most notably the Otter Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts. As the Houston Chronicle Science Blogger Eric Berger points out with all forecast there are errors the farther you go out:

The average error in three-day forecasts is about 130 miles, and if the forecast is off by about that much to the west then Earl would slam directly into Cape Hatteras, N.C.

None of the models are calling for that, however, and they’re still forecasting a northwest turn later today and a northward turn on Thursday. Currently moving west-northwest, if Earl does not take a sharper turn to the northwest later today it will be disconcerting to say the least.

The good news for the east coast is most of the models are beginning to show very similar solutions and keeps Earl about 100-200 miles off shore. Landfall in the US seems unlikely but the east coast from the Carolinas up to Massachusetts and Maine could experience tropical storm conditions while the Outer Banks and Cape Cod possibly experiencing hurricane conditions.

As Brendan Loy points out over on Sullivan’s Travelers site New England probably won’t get much but some windy weather later this week:

The models now universally call for Earl to take a pronounced right turn between 30° N and 40° N; there is no longer even a single reputable model predicting a landfall in New England, or even getting closer than a hundred miles away from Cape Cod and the Islands. All of the models have Earl’s track staying to the “right” of the crucial 40° N 70° W marker.

We’re still 48 hours out from when Earl could start to impact the United States along the Outer Banks of North Carolina. One thing I’ve learned from tropical systems and hurricanes over the last 6 years as I blogged about them is just when you think you’ve got them all figured out, they go and do something unexpected that leaves you baffled. If you live in any place along the east coast that is close or in the National Hurricane Centers forecasted path and cone of uncertainty then I would be monitoring all forecast updates and start preparing for “Just in Case.”

As Ben Franklin said, “An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure” I think that holds very true in situations like this. I just want people to be safe and use common sense. I don’t expect Earl to make landfall in the United States. Personally and professionally from all I have read and seen online, I expect the center of the storm to comes with in 100 miles of the United States before making landfall in Nova Scotia as a category 1 hurricane sometime Saturday morning.

Because these forecasts can always change, and sometimes they do, there’s nothing wrong with thinking ahead and being prepared for, “just in case”

Hurricane Earl Resources – [NHC Earl Tracker] [NOAA Earl Satellite Images] [NHC Earl Public Advisory] [NHC Earl Forecast Discussion] [Earl Model Plots] [NOAA Buoy Observations] [NOAA tidal gauges] [StormPulse.com] [Wunderground.com Earl Resources] [Skeetobite Weather Earl Forecast Intensity and Path] [AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center] [AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center]

More great insight in the following weather blogs – [Dr. Jeff Masteres Wunderground Blog] [Houston Chronicles SciGuy Eric Berger] [Brendan Loy - Sullivan's Travelers] [AccuWeather.com Weather Matrix Blog] [RaceWeather.net Tropics Discussion out of Texas]

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Earl became the second major hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane this morning, and has continued to intensify since then. As of 5pm EDT, Earl had become a category 4 hurricane with sustained maximum winds of 135 mph and a central pressure 948 mb. It is moving west-northwest at 15 mph. Here is current forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center:

EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. THEREAFTER…EYEWALL CYCLES WILL LIKELY INDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY…WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 4 AND 5…THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS…WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD… PRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS…AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY…IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.

If I am someone who lives along the east coast from the Carolinas, especially North Carolina all the way up to Cape Cod I would be making several types of plans at this point. After reading Jeff Masters Wunderground Weather Blog, I concur with his thoughts on how someone along the eastern coast of the United States should prepare and perceive Earl.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl’s current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl’s chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina’s Outer Banks and to Massachusetts. The latest set of model runs (2am EDT, or 6Z) project Earl will miss North Carolina by 200 – 300 miles on Thursday, and Massachusetts by a similar distance on Friday. Keep in mind that the average error in a 4 – 5 day NHC forecast is 200 – 300 miles, so the East Coast cannot breathe easily yet. The Outer Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 9% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 14% for Nantucket, 4% for Boston, and 2% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Regardless of Earl’s exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 – 15 feet in offshore waters

From Sunday night to Monday morning it seemed the trend in the models and National Hurricane Forecast was to shift the forecast track more to the west. As Dr. Masters’ points out this is uncomfortably close to the Outer Banks, of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

I have been reading Joe Bastardi’s daily blog on the AccuWeather Professional site. He is a little more bullish than the National Hurricane Center and most of the models on pushing the track of Earl closer to the United States, “Earl 100 miles east of Hatteras as a major, 100 miles east of Cape Cod as a Cat 2, hurricane conditions Outer Banks, Cape and islands from this.”

Also at 5pm EDT, tropical storm Fiona formed behind Earl. Will have more on this tomorrow.

Hurricane Earl Resources – [NHC Earl Tracker] [NOAA Earl Satellite Images] [NHC Earl Public Advisory] [NHC Earl Forecast Discussion] [NOAA Buoy Observations] [NOAA tidal gauges] [StormPulse.com] [Wunderground.com Earl Resources] [Skeetobite Weather Earl Forecast Intensity and Path] [AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center] [AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center]

More great insight in the following weather blogs – [Dr. Jeff Masteres Wunderground Blog] [Houston Chronicles SciGuy Eric Berger] [AccuWeather.com Weather Matrix Blog] [RaceWeather.net Tropics Discussion out of Texas]

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Around 6pm EDT Thursday night Tropical Depression 3 became Tropical Storm Bonnie. The second named storm this season in the Atlantic. As of 8am EDT, Bonnie had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph with higher gusts. It is expected to make it’s first landfall later this afternoon some where over the Florida Keys and the Southern Florida Peninsula. Later tonight Bonnie should enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Bonnie is forecasted to produce 1 to 3 total inches of rain for south Florida with some localized spots receiving upwards of 5 inches.

Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Bonnie looks to move west-northwest towards the southeastern Louisiana coast, right over the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill site. As of this morning most forecasts do not have Bonnie reaching hurricane strength as it has to battle substantial upper level wind shear. There is a possibility it could reach hurricane strength but right now it is not expected to.

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