Daytona 500

NASCAR 2013 DAYTONA 500 RACE DAY FORECAST

NASCAR 2013 Daytona 500 Race Day Weather Forecast: Rain Threatens but Think We Race

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The threat of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain in the forecast this afternoon for the 55th running of the Daytona 500. Cold front will stall across north-central Florida, the location of where this front stalls will be key to where most of the shower and thunderstorm activity occurs.

The above image represents four different forecast models for Sunday afternoon. They all agree that there will be scattered showers along with dry breaks. The only major difference is the location of where the front stalls. As mentioned, this could be the difference of a few delays or a wet afternoon out at the track.

DO WE RACE TODAY? I am sticking with my original forecast, so the answer here is yes. Rain delays and red flags due to weather are a real possibility but because of the scattered nature of the rain, there should be period of dry time. It will give Daytona International Speedway a chance to try out their new track drying system the Air Titan.

THE ODDS WE GET THE RACE IN TODAY? Although I anticipate some rain delays, I would say we have a 50% to 60% chance of getting the race in today and not having to come back on Monday.

This is a challenging forecast, and I expect a long day of keeping an eye on the radar as I watch the race and race coverage this afternoon. As weather changes today please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN and like me on Facebook for the latest weather updates through the weekend.

Conditions in Daytona Beach, FL: Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

Complete Forecast and Schedule over on SBNation NASCAR Page.

NASCAR 2013 DAYTONA 500 FORECAST

NASCAR 2013 Daytona 500: How Will Rain Impact Sunday’s Race?

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The weather forecast for Sunday’s Daytona 500 hasn’t changed much in the last forty-eight hours. The forecast continues to show a chance of scattered rain showers and even an isolated thunderstorm for Sunday afternoon.

DO WE RACE SUNDAY? Yes, I think we race Sunday and it is official meaning we don’t race on Monday. That could also mean a rain shortened race, but at this point I am still around 70% confident we see a complete Daytona 500.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS WE HAVE A TOTALLY RAIN FREE RACE? This is a little harder to answer. It’s possible but based on the forecast I’d say the odds of a totally rain free race is somewhere between 30% and 40%.

WILL WE SEE ANY RAIN DELAYS? Anytime rain is in the forecast for a NASCAR race there is absolutely a possibility of a delay. I think at least one delays is very possible. It comes down to where will all the rain showers and thunderstorms develop and where will the move once they form? We won’t know that until they show up on radar. As you will see me say many times this NASCAR season, “It’s not the rain you see you need to worry about it’s the rain you don’t.”

WHAT’S MONDAY’S FORECAST? I honestly don’t think there is a need for this forecast but people have asked so I thought I’d mention it. It looks about the same as Sunday. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorm.

Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN and like me on Facebook for the latest weather updates through the weekend.

Conditions in Daytona Beach, FL: Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

Complete Forecast and Schedule over on SBNation NASCAR Page.

NASCAR 2013 DAYTONA 500 FORECAST

NASCAR 2013 Daytona 500: Will Sunday’s Race be Washed Out?

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Weather remains fairly quiet today and tomorrow as NASCAR prepares for Sunday’s Daytona 500. Warm temperatures are expected as we go through this afternoon and into Saturday. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s and it will even be a little humid. The only weather concern we have the next two days will be a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm on Saturday for the Nationwide Series race in the afternoon.

The main weather focus for this weekend at Daytona International Speedway is for Sunday’s 55th running of the Great American Race. Cold front moves in across northern Florida Saturday night and into Sunday, bringing a chance of rain and even a few thunderstorms. The front stalls over Daytona Beach on Sunday, and this will be the focusing mechanism for shower and storm develop during the afternoon and evening.

Since Wednesday the threat of rain has continually increased over northern and central Florida. While I stop short of calling a second straight rain out for the Daytona 500, there could definitely be some rain delays during the day, and possibly even rain shortened. The new Air Titan drier at Daytona International Speedway may be put to the test.

My odds of us seeing the complete Daytona 500 on Sunday is between 50% and 60%. I don’t like the trend I am seeing in the forecast, but it doesn’t look like a washout. I think we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms form through the morning and into the afternoon. When I say scattered showers, imagine dropping a handful of marbles onto the floor and they scattered all over the place. You don’t know where they will go and stop but they are there all over the floor. That’s the challenge of forecasting this kind of rain.

Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN and like me on Facebook for the latest weather updates through the weekend.

Conditions in Daytona Beach, FL: Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

Complete Forecast and Schedule over on SBNation NASCAR Page.

NASCAR 2013 DAYTONA 500 FORECAST

NASCAR 2013 Daytona 500: Rain Chances Increase for the Weekend

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Unlike other sports, NASCAR starts its season with their premiere event, the Daytona 500. Weather is always a concern for NASCAR, but of all the weather forecasts I do during the year, this is the most important . In the 54-year history of the Great American Race, the Daytona 500 has only ran once on a Monday and that was last year. The question is, will history repeat itself?

Weather forecast for today’s Budweiser Duel is quite nice. Plenty of sunshine with temperatures this afternoon in the low to mid 70s.

Rain chances are on the increase for Daytona International Speedway Friday through Sunday. Friday’s rain threat is minimum as a weak surface disturbance passes by late in the day and into the evening. I think just a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm Friday afternoon and evening, but shouldn’t impact the Camping World Truck Series race.

Saturday, a cold front presses closer to north and central Florida during the afternoon. Like Friday, there is a slight chance of an afternoon shower or even an isolated thunderstorm. Although the chance of rain is worth mentioning, Saturday afternoon’s Nationwide Series race should remain mostly dry with just a very small chance of a delay.

Cold front slides through and stalls close to Daytona International Speedway on Sunday. Rain chances have increased over the last few days, enough to mention the chance of a shower during the Great American race. This worries me some, but at this point I am confident in thinking we will see the 55th running of the Daytona 500 on Sunday. I am stopping short of saying the race is totally dry. Stalled cold fronts that close to an event always make me nervous. Couple miles shift north or south with these boundaries could mean the difference between a totally dry race, and a rain delayed race. Probability of seeing a race on Sunday, better than 70%.

Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN and like me on Facebook for the latest weather updates through the weekend.

Conditions in Daytona Beach, FL: Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

Complete Forecast and Schedule over on SBNation NASCAR Page.

2012 Daytona 500 Race Postponed: We Race Monday Night

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Conditions in Daytona Beach, FL:

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Around 1:30pm on Monday the heaviest and steadiest of the rain began to exit Daytona International Speedway. This is great because the rest of the afternoon into the evening will feature mostly dry conditions with the exception of just a few isolated or scattered showers developing near and around the track the rest of the day. This should give NASCAR and track officials plenty of time to get the track dried and ready for the 7 p.m. EST green flag for the rain delayed Daytona 500.

OFFICAL WXMAN FORECAST TONIGHT:
Tonight will be mostly dry With the excpetion of an isolated shower or two through the late afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s to near 70. Although there is just the slightest chance of a delay caused by weather NASCAR should be able to get all 200 laps completed.

Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN and like me on Facebook for the latest Weather updates through the week.

2012 Daytona 500 Race Postponed: Monday Weather Forecast

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Conditions in Daytona Beach, FL:

Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

 

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

Daytona, FL

MON
FEB 27
MON NIGHT
FEB 27
TUE
FEB 28

Showers and possible storms. Lingering Evenign Showers, mostly cloudy Mix of Sunshine and clouds
High 75 6 to 8 PM Temps: 68 High: 76

Everyone was expecting the 54th running of the Daytona 500 to be historic because of Danica Patrick’s debut in NASCAR’s top series the Sprint Cup, but instead it was historic because it was the first Daytona 500 in 53 years to be postponed because of rain.

After hours of waiting and watching rain drops, an attempt to dry the track during a break, the rain moved back in and NASCAR made the decision to postpone the race for Monday at noon ET.

ISN’T MONDAY’S FORECAST JUST AS BAD?
Yes and Monday’s forecast appears worse than Sunday’s. Rain showers and possible thunderstorms can be expected during the scheduled start (12 p.m. EST) on Monday. The rain will continue through the early afternoon before breaking up, diminishing and pushing east during the early evening hours.

On the remote chance that the race is postponed another day, Tuesday at noon would be the next logical choice.  There is still a lot of uncertainty of what would happen if Mother Nature forced NASCAR’s hand for another day. Next weekend they are in Phoenix and it has been said that it take around two days for the NASCAR haulers to get from Charlotte to Phoenix.

OFFICAL WXMAN FORECAST:
Rain and a few isolated storms likely Monday morning, through midday and into the afternoon, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Rain showers begin to diminish and break up as drier air works in late afternoon early evening. Just a few lingering isolated showers are possible Monday evening otherwise mostly cloudy and drier temps in the upper 60s.

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DaytonaShowers

2012 Daytona 500 Race Day Weather Forecast: Will There Be A Break?

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Conditions in Daytona Beach, FL:

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Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

Daytona, FL

SUN FEB 26

2 PM ET

SUN FEB 26

4 PM ET

SUN FEB 26

6 PM ET

Cloudy skies and Showers Cloudy, Breezy, Showers Cloudy, Breezy, Showers
Temp: 63 Temp: 63 Temp: 62

I don’t mind changing my forecast if it means we get to see the 54th running of the Daytona 500 on its scheduled day. The race won’t start on time, because as of 12:30 p.m. EST it was still raining/sprinkles over Daytona International Speedway. The jet driers were out on the track and it could take as long as three hours to dry the track. Scattered showers around Daytona International Speedway will also slow the drying process.

WILL WE RACE TODAY?
That is a great question and honestly we are at the mercy of the weather. A lot of things have to go right for us to see NASCAR racing this afternoon and evening and only one thing has to go wrong to prevent it.

Above is a Radar image of Florida at around 12:15 p.m. EST. The highlighted area is rain out over the Gulf of Mexico. Around 11 a.m. EST it appeared the rain may start to be moving north but over the last hour it still moving more east to northeast than northeast. That still concerns me.

The other concern that prevents us from getting the Daytona 500 ran today will be all the moisture and the threat of developing scattered showers across the area. The track could get dry and it would take only one shower to star the whole drying process all over again. As I have said many times before, it’s not the rain you see but the rain you don’t that causes the biggest problems.

WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD WE RUN TODAY/TONIGHT?
It all depends on where the rain over the Gulf of Mexico goes. If it goes north our chances increase to about 50 percent if it stay east and doesn’t move north much then it drop to less than 10 percent.

Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN and like me on Facebook for the latest Weather updates through the week.

Daytona500 Model

Daytona International Speedway NASCAR Race Day Weather Forecast: How Will The Rain Impact The 500

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Conditions in Daytona Beach, FL:

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Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

Daytona, FL

SUN FEB 26
11 AM ET
SUN FEB 26
1 PM ET
SUN FEB 26
3 PM ET

Cloudy skies and cool, shower possible Cloudy, breezy, cool, shower Cloudy with rain showers, breezy and cooler.
Temp: 63 Temp: 64 Temp: 62

In the three years that I have been forecasting the weather for NASCAR there hasn’t been a more important and complicated forecast. This is the “Great American” race, NASCAR’s biggest event of the season. I am conflicted with two personalities, the NASCAR fan and the meteorologist.

The fan in me wants nothing more than to see great racing today (Sunday) and like many of you doesn’t want to hear the word “rain” for the Daytona 500. The meteorologist in me has to be professionally honest and call it like I see it. I only have my accuracy and I do this because my followers on Twitter and those that follow me expect nothing but the best whether they like the weather or not.

This brings us to the forecast for the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. If you have any invested interest in the Daytona 500 you have already checked various weather forecasts from Weather.com, Accuweather.com, the National Weather Service and here. All of us have been saying pretty much the same thing, rain likely (depending on the forecast) for today.

I’ve built my reputation on being up front and honest to all of the followers and NASCAR fans who depend on my forecast. I don’t let the fan in me interfere and end up “Wish-casting.” “Wish-casting” a forecast you wish will happen rather than the one that is most likely to happen.

Now that we are seeing rain on radar throughout Florida, we can answer the following questions: When will the rain arrive? Will rain hit the track? And, what is the likelihood that the Great American race is delayed or postponed?

WHEN WILL THE RAIN ARRIVE? As of 8 a.m. EST, rain is falling along the western coast of Florida. The rain will slowly spread east through the morning into the afternoon. The air is dry at the surface and for the rain to make it all the way to the surface, it has to start to saturate all the levels from top to bottom. This will take a couple of hours, and just because rain may be seen on radar won’t always mean it is reaching the surface. Sadly, I believe rain starts to impact Daytona International Speedway between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. EST.

WHERE WILL IT RAIN? I expect the rain to fall along and north of the I-4 corridor that runs from Tampa up to Daytona. Daytona International Speedway will be right along the southern extent of the rain. Once the rain arrives later this morning/early afternoon it will last a couple of hours.

WILL IT BE A WASHOUT? As I stated above, it will rain today and rain will fall at the track. NASCAR will do everything it can and wait as long as necessary (see Atlanta’s fall race last season) to get the race started and completed on Sunday. I’m stopping myself just short of calling today’s 54th running of the Daytona 500 a washout, but the likelihood that this race gets moved to Sunday night or Monday is around 70 percent.

In light of what is going today, it is interesting to note that in the 53-year history of the Great American Race, the Daytona 500 has never been run on a Monday. Four of the 53 races (1965, 1966, 2003, 2009) have been called early because of either rain or darkness. And 39 races out of 53 (73.6 percent) have been run on days with no rain recorded (I want to thank William Schmitz, of the Southeast Regional Climate Center for the NASCAR weather stats).

WHAT DOES MONDAY LOOK LIKE? A lot of people have already been asking the following questions: “Daytona has lights; how late will the rain last?” and “What does Monday’s forecast look like?” Once the rain arrives, it is expected to be steady into the afternoon and evening. There are scenarios that the rain could start to break up later this evening and night and make the Daytona 500 a night race. That has a 50 percent likelihood.

If it does get postponed until Monday, showers are expected through Monday morning and early afternoon. The best chance would be later Monday evening. I don’t know what NASCAR will do if they are faced with a long rain delay later this afternoon. If they decide to wait as late as they can Sunday night, I have a feeling they will be waiting a long time.

Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN and like me on Facebook for the latest Weather updates through the week.

Daytona500 Model

NASCAR Daytona International Speedway Weather: Rain Remains A Threat Sunday

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Conditions in Daytona Beach, FL:

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Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

Daytona, FL

SAT
FEB 25
SUN
FEB 26

Mostly cloudy, early morning showers, cooler. Mostly cloudy, possible showers. Threat increasing into the afternoon and evening
High: 65  High: 67 
Low: 50


Clouds will linger after the cold front on Saturday, it will be gray through the morning but some clearing will take place in the afternoon. The main concern still remains the chance of rain Sunday with a disturbance coming out of the Gulf of Mexico.

I posted an image above from one of the computer models. All the forecast models have been consistent, bringing most of the moisture into northern Florida. As you can see where the “X” is located this is very close to Daytona International Speedway. These kinds of forecasts can go either way. There is not enough confidence to say, “Yes this is a washout” and honestly I don’t believe it is. I am just concerned that showers will move in towards the middle or end of the race and possibly shorten it.

Unlike some systems where rain moves through and it is over, once rain arrives with scenarios like these it stays around for some time and is slow to exit.

SATURDAY:
10:30 a.m. ET
Sprint Cup Final Practice – Mostly cloudy – temp: 59
1:15 p.m ET
Nationwide Race – Partly sunny – temp: 62

SUNDAY:
1 p.m. ET
Daytona 500 – Mostly cloudy chc. of showers – temp: 66

Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN and like me on Facebook for the latest Weather updates through the week.

NASCAR Daytona International Speedway Weather: Growing Concerns over Sunday’s Forecast

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Conditions in Daytona Beach, FL:

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Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

Daytona, FL

FRI
FEB 24
SAT
FEB 25
SUN
FEB 26

Sun and clouds, breezy & warm. Partly sunny, cooler & breezy Clouds, limited sun, increasing chance of showers afternoon & evening
High: 86  High: 65 
Low: 56
High: 68 
Low: 48

There are no weather concerns for Friday or Saturday. The weather story for Friday are very warm temperatures and strong gusty winds. Highs will reach the mid 80s and winds out of the southwest could gust up to thirty miles per hour.

Cold front sweeps across Florida Friday night and early Saturday morning. Its passing will be quick but not before it puts down rain across the area overnight. Rain and front are gone by Saturday morning but it will be noticeably cooler as highs only reach the mid 60s.

The main focus for this forecast has turned to Sunday afternoon. What once looked like a dry forecast just two days ago has become increasingly wet and unsettled for Sunday afternoon and evening. Moisture will spread in from the Gulf of Mexico as the same cold front that moved through Friday night begins to come back and become a warm front. This boundary will creep across north Florida bringing with it an increase threat of rain Sunday afternoon and evening. Rain that forms along a warm front usually is more wide spread and last longer than showers associated with a quick moving cold front.

Based on the current information, I am still optimistic for Sunday but keep in mind I’m cautiously optimistic. The forecast over the last thirty-six hour has grown increasingly pessimistic and wet for Sunday. I can’t say, “we won’t see rain on Sunday,” but I also can’t say, “The Daytona 500 will be a wash.” There’s just not enough information available to make that call. Again, I remain cautiously optimistic and if you plan on going the the Great American Race on Sunday, I’d prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

FRIDAY:
11 a.m. ET
Sprint Cup Practice – Partly sunny – temp: 78
12:30 p.m. ET
Sprint Cup Practice – Partly sunny – temp: 81
2 p.m. ET
Nationwide Qualifying – Partly sunny – temp: 84
4 p.m. ET
Truck Qualifying – Partly sunny – temp: 82
7:30 p.m. ET
Truck Race – Partly cloudy – temp: 72

SATURDAY:
10:30 a.m. ET
Sprint Cup Final Practice – Partly sunny – temp: 60
1:15 p.m ET
Nationwide Race – Partly sunny – temp: 62

SUNDAY:
1 p.m. ET
Daytona 500 – Sun and clouds, isolated threat of a shower – temp: 65

Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN and like me on Facebook for the latest Weather updates through the week.

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