Aaron's 312

NASCAR Suspends All Activities Today – Torndo Watch For Talladega until 2pm CDT

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Click here for the Latest Forecast

Conditions at Talladega Municipal Airport:
Current Weather Conditions | Look at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

Very GOOD & Useful Alabama Weather Links:
AlabamaWX.com | ABC33/40 |

A Tornado Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for Central & Northern Alabama until 2pm CDT.

…THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER… THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION…THUNDERSTORMS OVER MS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO AL AND MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE MORNING…WITH SCATTERED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL BE INITIALLY ELEVATED…BUT RAPID DESTABILIZATION WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF TORNADOES BY LATE MORNING. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

CURRENT WATCHES, WARNINGS & ADVISORIES IN ALABAMA: Warning Map | Mobile Warning Map

A Tornado Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for tornado development. People located in and around the watch area should keep an eye to the sky and listen to their NOAA Weather Radio all hazards or tune to local broadcast media for further weather information. The watch is intended information. The watch is intended to review safety rules.

A Tornado Warning is issued when a developing tornado has been detected by National Weather Service Doppler radar or a reliable report of a tornado has been reported. A Tornado Warning is usually issued for portions of one or two counties… for an hour or less. The storm could also produce large hail and destructive straight line winds. If the Tornado Warning includes your neighborhood or work place… you should seek safe shelter immediately.

I can’t stress enough the seriousness of this situation for later today into the afternoon and evening. I don’t want people to panic I want them to be informed know what is possible and make decision based on that information. NOW IS THE TIME TO BE THINKING & PLANNING. Do not wait until a warning has been issued for Talladega county to decided where you should go. The worst place to be this afternoon would be at a campsite, in a motor home, a RV or a bus.

Does all of these forecast mean a tornado will occur with every storm that gets close or passes near Talladega or other parts of Alabama, the answer is no. What you are looking at is a scenario in the atmosphere that lends itself to storms developing into very dangerous storms. With large hail possibly 1-2 inches in diameter. Dangerous and destructive winds over 58 mph and of course forming tornadoes. Some concern with these tornadoes is that they could be long lasting. Do not take any warning lightly.

Someone over Twitter sent me an excellent link from StockCarScience.com explaining to fans how Tornadoes form. Since I don’t have a lot of time to do that myself please click on the link a nice resource I will share a couple of sections from the post:

Some Myths Debunked

  • Opening windows does nothing.  Yes, the pressure may drop outside, but it is almost impossible for the pressure differential to be so great as to cause the house to “explode”.  There is actually evidence that opening windows is worse in terms of damage to the house.  If it’s a really serious tornado, it is going to do some damage and it is not going to care whether your windows are open.  (A tornado also can’t lift up your house and deposit it in Oz, but it gave me an idea for a funny story that involves Kevin Harvick as Dorothy and the media as the Munchkins.)
  • Highway overpasses are not safe places during a tornado.  Steel-reinforced concrete is strong, but not stronger than a tornado.  If the overpass is hit by a tornado, it can fall and anyone in the vicinity is in danger of being hit by debris.  If you think about it, the area underneath an overpass basically funnels all the wind through that area, so you are in much more danger being under an overpass than you are in your house.
  • No geographical feature protects you from a tornado.  They go over the river and through the woods, through cities, over hills, and basically wherever they care to go. Lying in a ditch is the best thing to do if you’re outside, but it is much better not to be outside.
  • Motorhomes and RVs do NOT cause tornadoes; however, you are much more likely to be injured by a tornado or high winds in a RV or motorhome than you are in a permanent structure.

What to Do

What you SHOULD DO, especially if you are out at the racetrack:

  • If you’re at home and planning on heading for the track, listen to the radio to make sure activities haven’t been delayed or cancelled because of the weather.
  • Have a weather radio with fresh batteries and spares.  Listen to the weather, watch it on TV, and be aware that you may need to take action on short notice.
  • If you’re camping or RV’ing, have a flashlight and emergency kit that includes the basics, like bandages, antiseptic, etc.
  • Make an emergency plan for your group – identify two places to meet if something happens and you are separated.  One place should be near your campsite or seats and another should be a little further away, to be used if there is damage to the first area.  Cell phone lines often become overloaded during emergencies, so don’t count on being able to reach each other on the phone.
  • Don’t get falling down stupid drunk.  You may need to think quickly.  Wait until after the storm warnings have expired to enjoy the special pleasures of Talladega.
  • If you hear sirens or radio/television reports that a storm is coming, get into a permanent structure if at all capable.  My guess is that the safest place at Talladega if you’re out camping is in a ground-floor bathroom in a concrete structure.   Like being on an airplane, identify two such structure because there are likely to be a lot of people with the same idea you have.  If you can get underneath something heavy, like a sturdy table, a workbench, or anything else that would protect your head from falling debris, that’s even better.
  • Remember that NASCAR fans share a unique bond that makes us more like family than strangers, even if we’ve just met.  If someone needs help, help them – even if they are wearing a xx t-shirt (where xx is your least favorite driver’s car number).

Monitor local weather outlets like radio or weather radio. On FM Radio Thunder 92.7 WDTR on Twitter at Thunder927. Also many race scanners have the capability of accessing the NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio Frequencies. I’d check on the local ones in the area in set those on your scanner. local WX frequency for Anniston Alabama is 162.475 You can also find your frequency here – NWR Stations Listing for Alabama I also recommend on TV ABC 33/40 out of Birmingham.

423ConvectiveOutlookSat

TALLADEGA FORECAST (4/23/10): Focus Will Be Saturday Afternoon & Evening

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Click here for the Latest Forecast

Conditions at Talladega Municipal Airport:
Current Weather Conditions | Look at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

Other Alabama Weather Links:
AlabamaWX.com | ABC33/40 |

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

SAT April 24 SUN April 25 Mon April 26

Showers & Storms. Some Potentially Severe! Showers Ending in the morning, Partly sunny afternoon. Clouds and Sunshine.
High: 76
Low: 62
High: 82
Low: 61
High: 72
Low: 55

FORECAST DISCUSSION Friday 3:00pm EDT:

The above graphic is from the Storm Prediction Center and it puts most of AL, MS, AR, & TN in their MDT or “Moderate” risk for severe weather. Here is their discussion for this region:

…TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS…THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT…

…OZARKS/LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY… A WELL-ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY SATURDAY AS A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING…MODEL FORECASTS QUICKLY DEVELOP AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A CLUSTER OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN NE TX AT 12Z SATURDAY ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EWD INTO NRN LA AND SRN AR SATURDAY MORNING WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING EWD ALONG A WARM FRONT AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN THE TN VALLEY. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR…MODERATE INSTABILITY AND IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES AS THE MCS AND SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS ORGANIZE.

CONSIDERING THE SYNOPTIC SETUP…SEVERAL FACTORS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE KEY TO A TORNADO OUTBREAK SHOULD BE THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE GFS FOCUSING THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS NE LA AND NW MS SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE NAM FOCUSING THE LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER SOUTHEAST IN SCNTRL MS. AT THIS POINT…HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS BUT AM FAVORING THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NRN LA…SRN/ERN AR AND WRN/NRN MS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD ALSO EXIST EWD ALONG A WARM FRONT INTO NRN AL AND SWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MS AND AL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALSO HAVE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

CONCERNING THE TORNADO OUTBREAK SCENARIO…THE THINKING IS THAT A CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL ORGANIZE NEAR THE SABINE RIVER IN FAR NE TX AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO ERN AR AND NWRN MS BY MIDDAY. THE GFS IS FORECASTING THE MCS TO BE JUST AHEAD OF AND TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL JET CORE SUGGESTING THE SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES AND A LONG-TRACK TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES CONCERNING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON…SUPERCELLS AND WELL-DEVELOPED LINE-SEGMENTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

First off and most importantly I AM NOT FORECASTING A TORNADO FOR TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY! What I am forecasting are showers and storms, some that could easily turn severe with strong damaging winds (over 58 mph) large hail (inch or greater) and yes could possibly form a tornado. If you are not clear or want to double check on what the difference between a Warning and a Watch is please visit my previous post (NWS Special Weather Statement for Central Alabama)

This is a particularly dangerous situation especially for an outdoor event like Talladega. Campers, fans and media will need to monitor weather conditions from local sources like Thunder 92.7 WDTR on Twitter at Thunder927. Also many race scanners have the capability of accessing the NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio Frequencies. I’d check on the local ones in the area in set those on your scanner.

CURRENT WATCHES, WARNINGS & ADVISORIES IN ALABAMA: Warning Map | Mobile Warning Map

I also recommend checking with the ABC 33/40 Weather Team in Birmingham AL (Follow on Twitter: James Spann | Dr. Tim Coleman | J. B. Elliott) & for more information the weather blog AlabamaWX.com to get the latest information on the current weather through central Alabama. I am not at the track and I will do an update in the morning, monitor the radar from my phone since I will be celebrating my twins 9th birthday tomorrow afternoon around 2:00pm EDT.

As of 3:30pm EDT there had not been any announcement from NASCAR or Talladega on whether or not activities for Saturday had been canceled or rescheduled, which would include the Nationwide Aaron’s 312 Race or Sprint Cup Qualifying. Looking at all I am looking at I think there is a high likelihood those events like Cup qualifying get canceled and the Nationwide race gets rescheduled.

SUNDAY’S SPRINT CUP AARON’S 499: All the rain and storms should be done and out sometimes Sunday morning. I think around the early morning but mid morning at the latest. This should give track crews enough time to dry the track and get it ready for Sunday’s race. I feel like we will get the Spring Cup race in on Sunday.

Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.

NWS Special Weather Statement for Central Alabama for Saturday

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I am not one to over hype the weather. I have 10 years of severe weather forecast and 8.5 of those years have been spent on TV. I am posting this because with Talladega being such a large wide open place with a lot of fans around either attending activities or camping I want to keep people informed and safe. This is not the time to take the “Meteorologist or Weatherman is always wrong” approach. This is a very clear cut forecast. Bottom line I expect storms late in the day around Talladega, some could arrive towards midday. Because of the conditions in place across the state this is not the kind of forecast to take lightly. Even if there are no severe warnings for Talladega tomorrow it is better you prepared and planned as if there will be cause I think there will be.

Here is a Special Weather Statement from the NWS in Birmingham concerning the potential for Tornadoes Saturday afternoon across Central Alabama:

Tornadoes are possible across central Alabama on Saturday and Saturday night

(more…)

423ConvectiveOutlookSat

TALLADEGA FORECAST (4/23/10): Potentially Dangerous Weather Situation Saturday

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Click here for the Latest Forecast

Conditions at Talladega Municipal Airport:

Current Weather Conditions | Look at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

Other Alabama Weather Links:

AlabamaWX.com | ABC33/40 |

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

FRI April 23 SAT April 24 SUN April 25 Mon April 26

Mix of sun & clouds. Showers & Strong Storms. Some Potentially Severe! Showers Ending in the morning, Partly sunny afternoon. Clouds and Sunshine.
High: 86

High: 76
Low: 62
High: 81
Low: 61
High: 71
Low: 57

FORECAST DISCUSSION Friday 9:00am EDT:

If you are out at the track Friday then you have no worries about the weather. It will be warm maybe a little muggy so drink lots of water but qualifying for the Nationwide Aaron’s 312 at 11:30am along with practices for the Sprint Cup’s Aaron’s 499 will also go off with out any weather issues. All focus is on Saturday, not only because of the disruptions to the schedule but for the safety of all those at the track Saturday afternoon & evening.


The above graphic is from the Storm Prediction Center and it puts most of AL, MS, TN in their MDT or “Moderate” risk for  severe weather. What does the MDT mean:

A MDT risk implies a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms, and in most situations, greater magnitude of severe weather and greater forecaster confidence compared to a SLGT risk. A MDT risk is usually reserved for days with substantial severe storm coverage, or an enhanced chance for a significant severe storm outbreak. Typical MDT risk days include multiple tornadic supercells with very large hail, or intense squall lines with widespread damaging winds.

This is a particularly dangerous situation especially for an outdoor event like Talladega. Campers, fans and media will need to monitor weather conditions from local sources like Thunder 92.7 WDTR on Twitter at Thunder927. Also many race scanners have the capability of accessing the NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio Frequencies. I’d check on the local ones in the area in set those on your scanner.

I’ve teamed up with ABC 33/40 Meteorologist James Spann (on Twitter @spann) & AlabamaWX.com to help provide all those race fans & media who are out at the track with all the weather information possible to keep them safe and informed. Here is James’ video & part of his discussion from this morning:

TIMING: We believe now the main window for severe storms will be from around 12:00 noon until 12:00 midnight. A few severe storms could form along the warm front tomorrow morning in West Alabama, but the most significant storms will come during the afternoon and nighttime hours.

WHAT TO EXPECT: Storms that form across our state during that 12 hour window could produce large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes. With the severe weather parameters we are seeing, a few violent, long track tornadoes will be possible. Initially, the storms will be cellular during the afternoon and evening hours… this is the greatest tornado threat; then toward midnight we will deal with a squall line that will have potential for damaging winds.

TALLADEGA: It will be very difficult to get the Aaron’s 312 in tomorrow due to the rain and storms, but the weather will be fine for Sunday’s Aaron’s 499 with a partly sunny sky and a high around 80. Needless to say, there is great concern with a potential severe weather event of this magnitude ahead and the thousands of campers in place on the grounds around the Talladega Superspeedway. Everybody that is camping will need to be very aware of severe weather watches and warnings tomorrow, and have a plan of action in place in the event tornado warnings are issued for northern Talladega County. ABC 33/40 has a transmitter on Bald Rock Mountain, and provides the strongest TV signal over the track, so be sure and watch us as the day wears on for the latest severe weather information. Be sure and follow instructions from officials at the Superspeedway.

CALL TO ACTION: Today could be a good time to review your severe weather plan. If you live in a mobile home, you will need to have a shelter available tomorrow and tomorrow night, and a way to get there. In site built homes, be sure you have your “safe place” identified, and let all of the kids know where it is. And, of course, you have to be in a position to hear severe weather warnings. Never rely on sirens; they reach a limited of people that are outdoors. Every home, business, and church needs a NOAA Weather Radio receiver; you can buy those now at all Publix and Handy TV locations for under 30 dollars. And, you can sign up for WeatherCall to receive warnings by home phone or cell phone here.

IF YOU DON’T ALREADY YOU WILL NEED TO KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A WATCH & WARNING:

A severe weather WATCH means how it sounds “Watch Out” severe weather COULD occur but it doesn’t mean it will. This is the first line of defense if you will. A watch will typically be issued several hours before the development of any severe weather. During a watch you should prepare and think about what you would do when and if severe weather occurs.

A severe weather WARNING will be issued if severe weather is present & occurring, this mean you need to seek shelter IMMEDIATELY when a WARNING is issued for your current location. Warning Map | Mobile Warning Map

SUNDAY’S SPRINT CUP AARON’S 499: All the rain and storms should be done and out sometimes Sunday morning. I think around the early morning but mid morning at the latest. This should give track crews enough time to dry the track and get it ready for Sunday’s race.

Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.

422ConvectiveOutlookSat

TALLADEGA FORECAST (4/22/10): Weather Gets Nasty Saturday Improving Sunday

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Click here for the Latest Forecast

Conditions at Talladega Municipal Airport:

Current Weather Conditions | Look at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

Other Alabama Weather Links:

AlabamaWX.com | ABC33/40 |

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

FRI April 23 SAT April 24 SUN April 25 Mon April 26

Mix of sun & clouds. Showers & Strong Storms. Some Potentially Severe! Morning Showers. Partial Clearing in the afternoon. Clouds and Sunshine.
High: 86
Low: 55
High: 76
Low: 62
High: 81
Low: 61
High: 71
Low: 57

FORECAST DISCUSSION Thursday 5:00pm EDT:

The focus for this weekend is Saturday. It is going to get rough and potentially nasty for Saturday afternoon and evening for Talladega. From all that I see, I would say it is a good bet that the Nationwide’s Aarons 312 will probably get rained out and possibly qualifying for the Sprint Cup Aaron’s 499.

We are looking at a REAL possibly for severe storms. The above graphic is from the Storm Prediction Center putting all of Alabama into a slight risk for Severe weather and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is upgraded to a moderate risk tomorrow. These storms will likely have strong damaging winds, hail and a high potential to form Tornadoes. I seriously recommend to all who will be at the track on Saturday to monitor weather outlets for the latest weather information. If you are camping or going to be around the track at all listen for current watches and warnings. Many scanners have the capability of accessing the NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio Frequencies. I’d check on the local ones in the area in set those on your scanner.

You also need to know the difference between a watch and a warning. A severe weather watch just means how it sounds “Watch Out” severe weather COULD occur but it doesn’t mean it will. Usually it is issued several hours in advance and it covers several counties or states. A severe weather warning will be issued if severe weather is occurring and you need to seek shelter immediately when a WARNING is issued for your current location. Warning Map | Mobile Warning Map

Now for some good news, it looks very much like most of the rain is out of Alabama by Sunday morning. I have a feeling it will be out early but there are some indications that it could be as late as mid morning. Because of this I think they could get the Aaron’s 499 started on time or just a tad bit delayed but I feel very confident there will be racing on Sunday and we will see clearing and some sunshine in the afternoon.

If you have an iPhone like I do then I want to recommend a couple of apps. They cost money but are well worth the money. The first is RadarScope, it is a great Radar app for the iPhone. I know many professional meteorologist who swear by it and I am one of them, it costs $9.99.

The other app is Wunder Radio. Wunder Radio provides a quick and easy way to listen to thousands of streaming Internet radio stations and other audio streams on your iPhone, Blackberry or Windows Mobile Phone, it costs $6.99. What I love about this app from a weather stand point is that you can also get LOCAL weather radio broadcasts.

Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.

TALLADEGA FORECAST (4/22/10): Potential for Severe Storms Saturday

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Click here for the Latest Forecast

Conditions at Talladega Municipal Airport:
Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

THU April 22 FRI April 23 SAT April 24 SUN April 25 Mon April 26

Sunny &Warm Mix of sun & clouds. Showers & Strong Storms. Some Potentially Severe! Morning Showers. Partial Clearing in the afternoon. Clouds and Sunshine.
High: 81

High: 86
Low: 55
High: 76
Low: 62
High: 81
Low: 61
High: 71
Low: 57

FORECAST DISCUSSION Thursday 12:00pm EDT:

As I mentioned yesterday, weather in Talladega for Today and Friday look very nice. All attention from a weather stand point will be for Saturday. I want to share some of the comments written by the National Weather Service in Birmingham, Alabama in their Thursday morning Area Forecast Discussion:

AS ALL EYES ARE LOOKING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WEATHER…AS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SCENARIO IS LOOMING FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE PRESENT TIME…A LARGE SCALE CUTOFF LOW IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS…WHILE A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS. BRINGING A SEVERE THREAT WITH IT TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND PERHAPS TOWARDS THE LOWER DELTA REGIONS LATETOMORROW EVENING. HOWEVER…THE REAL PLAYER IS YET TO COME AS A VERY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW BY EARLY SATURDAY…SETTING THE STAGES FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE NOTHING SHORT OF A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON SATURDAY MORNING…LASTING PERHAPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MUCH OF MS…AL…AND TN.

I am not sharing this to scare anyone, if you are going to be at the track Saturday or are camping the weekend this is information you need to know. Many race scanners have the ability to double as a all hazards weather radio. This rain which will be heavy at times and even stormy will be around most of the day Saturday. It’s very possible it will scratch Cup qualifying and the Nationwide race in the afternoon.

Now for some good news, rain should begin to end early Sunday morning. A few showers may linger around midday but I’m optimistic there will be time to dry the track and get the race in. I will have another update later this afternoon and evening.

If you have an iPhone like I do then I want to recommend a couple of apps. They cost money but are well worth the money. The first is RadarScope, it is a great Radar app for the iPhone. I know many professional meteorologist who swear by it and I am one of them, it costs $9.99.

The other app is Wunder Radio. Wunder Radio provides a quick and easy way to listen to thousands of streaming Internet radio stations and other audio streams on your iPhone, Blackberry or Windows Mobile Phone, it costs $6.99. What I love about this app from a weather stand point is that you can also get LOCAL weather radio broadcasts.

Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.

0421DegaSAT

TALLADEGA FORECAST (4/21/10): The Focus for Rain Seems to be Saturday

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Click here for the Latest Forecast

Conditions at Talladega Municipal Airport:
Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

THU April 22 FRI April 23 SAT April 24 SUN April 25 Mon April 26

Sunny &Warm Mix of sun & clouds. Showers & Possible Strong to Severe Storms in the afternoon Morning showers & T’Storm. Partial Clearing in the afternoon. Clouds and Sunshine.
High: 81
Low: 46
High: 84
Low: 55
High: 76
Low: 62
High: 81
Low: 61
High: 75
Low: 57

FORECAST DISCUSSION Wednesday 3:00pm EDT:

Thursday and Friday the weather will be great. There will be no issues from mother nature for Nationwide practice and qualifying and Sprint Cup practices. Unfortunately, Saturday still is the wettest and worst day of the four at Talladega.

11:30 am EDT is when Sprint Cup qualifying is scheduled, the above graphic is for roughly 2:00 pm EDT for Saturday afternoon. As you can see there will be an area of showers and potentially strong to even sever weather moving into Alabama. Of course this is just one computer model, but what I am trying to convey is that Cup qualifying could get in but timing of these showers and storms will be the key factor.

As for the Nationwide race scheduled for 2:30 pm EDT, that still looks like it will be rained out and with what I see coming I wouldn’t want to get stuck out in that mess. It looks very wet, and very stormy. I will already say I expect severe weather watches and a few warnings Saturday into Saturday night,

As mentioned above, rain and storms will continue into Saturday night into Sunday morning, but the storms clear out and become partly cloudy into the afternoon. Depending on when the storms and rain move out Sunday morning the race could get started on time at 1pm or possibly delayed. At this point, I sense that the rain is out and away sometime during the overnight or early morning hours on Sunday to allow the track to dry.

What has been giving me some confidence with this forecast since Monday has been the models consistency with this system. Timing has been relatively the same with each run. Even as some of the shorter range models begin to get closer and closer to the date they also show the same thing.  There’s still a lot of time between now and Saturday so a lot still has the potential to change, just keep that in mind

Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.

0420DegaSAT

TALLADEGA FORECAST (4/20/10): Saturday’s Wet but Dries Out Sunday

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Click here for the Latest Forecast

Conditions at Talladega Municipal Airport:
Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

THU April 22 FRI April 23 SAT April 24 SUN April 25 Mon April 26

Sunny &Warm Mix of sun & clouds. Wet, Showers & Storms (Some Severe) AM Showers & Storms, PM Clearing Mostly Cloudy
High: 79
Low: 46
High: 83
Low: 56
High: 76
Low: 62
High: 81
Low: 61
High: 78
Low: 57

FORECAST DISCUSSION Tuesday 5:00pm EDT:

It seemed to be a running joke through the second half of the 2009 NASCAR season that if you ever had a drought where you lived just schedule a NASCAR race and that would solve the drought. It appears that 2010 is no different. Since the start of the season there’s only been 2 weekends where rain hasn’t affected or threatened a NASCAR race this season. Unfortunately rain is in the forecast for this weekend at Talladega as a strong storm system moves slowly through the plains and into the Ohio Valley along with an upper level storm that will move through the region.

The above image is for Saturday. Sprint cup qualifying is Saturday at 11:30 EDT and the rain and storms will be around during that time. In fact showers and potentially severe storms are possible from Friday night into Saturday. In my opinion all activities Friday afternoon look ok, as of now. Then I would expect if this forecast verifies that all on track activities would be washed out for the day Saturday. The above graphic is for early Saturday afternoon. It is very wet with rain and storms.

Rain and storms will continue into Saturday night and into Sunday morning. The models have been consistent in showing the rain moving out late in the day. The race could be delayed but I am not calling that yet but if this trend continues and the system doesn’t slow then we could still be good for the Sprint Cup race on Sunday and then whenever they reschedule the Nationwide race.

Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.

Talladega_Superspeed_C

TALLADEGA FORECAST (4/19/10): What Would the Weekend be without Rain

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Click here for the Latest Forecast

Conditions at Talladega Municipal Airport:
Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

FORECAST DISCUSSION Monday 4:00pm EDT:

You can count on one hand (and 2 fingers) the number of rain free weekends we’ve had all season, Atlanta and Phoenix. I wish I could add Talladega to that list but it’s not looking like it. A cold front associated with a storm system moving through the Central Plains will cause showers and storms sometime during the race weekend. Timing will be the biggest challenge at this time.

The above image is for Saturday afternoon around 1pm right before the Nationwide Race. Keep in mind this 5 days away. This front may slow or let’s hope it speeds up.

Right now the forecast for Sunday afternoon is for rain showers from the front for the first half of the day and then clearing as the front passes. That would also indicate windy conditions. Keep in mind we are 5 to 6 days away. We always see the timing of these system change over the course of the week. These are more or less an outlook. If you are going to the race I would anticipate rain at some point during the weekend. Best-case-scenario: Front is quicker through and then dry weather Saturday and Sunday. Worst-case-scenario: Front is slower and then doesn’t arrive until Saturday afternoon and keeps rain and storms around through Sunday afternoon. Only time will tell.

Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.

http://wx-man.com/images/weathe_icons/06.gif WED April 21 Plenty of sunshine
Low: 47 - High: 75
http://wx-man.com/images/weathe_icons/06.gif THU April 22 Partly sunny skies, warmer.
Low: 46 - High: 81
http://wx-man.com/images/weathe_icons/06.gif FRI April 23 Partly sunny with incr. clouds chc. of t’storm at night.
Low: 53 - High: 82
SAT April 24 Wet, Showers & T’Storms
Low: 64 - High: 76
SUN April 25 Poss. Showers in the AM, Clearing afternoon.
Low: 65 - High: 80
MON April 26 Mostly Cloudy Skies.
Low: 56 - High: 78
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