Talladega Superspeedway

NASCAR 2013 TALLADEGA FORECAST

NASCAR 2013 Race Day Weather Forecast at Talladega Superspeedway: More Chances of Rain


p>The upper level storm system that pushed a cold front through Alabama on Saturday will end up being centered right over the state this afternoon. Unseasonably cold air associated with this system combined with daytime heating will lead to scattered areas of showers and even thunderstorms for the afternoon. Some of these showers and storms could have small hail.

Sun_dega_1pm_medium

The above image is from the high-resolution forecast model known as the NAM at the 1 p.m. EDT start of the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway. While it is very difficult to know exactly where any cluster or areas of showers and storms will form during the afternoon, I am pretty confident we will see showers and storms form near and around Talladega Superspeedway.

DO WE RACE TODAY? That’s the question every race fan wants to know. Many fans have already looked at various weather forecasts from the National Weather Service, Weather.com, AccuWeather or whatever weather app they have on the phone. I’m pretty sure most of them say the same thing, “Chilly with rain.” Unfortunately that doesn’t answer the question, “Do we race today?”

Yes I believer we will see Sprint Cup racing this afternoon. Showers and storms this afternoon are scattered and not continuous, meaning there will be windows and breaks for dry weather.

WILL WE GET ALL 188 LAPS COMPLETE? The likelihood of getting all 188 laps complete this afternoon is around 35 to 45 percent. I am fully expecting at least one if not more rain delays this afternoon. I wish I could tell you at exactly what time and for how long a shower or storm would affect today’s race, but unfortunately that’s just not possible.

COULD THE RACE BE POSTPONED TO MONDAY? While the odds of getting a complete race today is low, I think we have a 50 to 60 percent likelihood of getting an official race or a race that ends at or after lap 94.

WHAT’S MONDAY’S FORECAST? Very similar to today’s weather. Chilly as the upper level storm system slowly slides east into Georgia. If the race were moved to Monday, my forecast would be the same as today’s.

This is going to be one of those races where your watching the radar as much as you are watching the racing on the track.

Follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN and like me on Facebook for the latest weather updates, as I expect there to be many updated through out the afternoon.

Conditions in Talladega, AL: Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

NASCAR 2013 TALLADEGA FORECAST

NASCAR 2013 Weather Forecast at Talladega Superspeedway: It’s Going to Rain

Cold front associated with an upper level cold core low will slowly work across the state of Alabama today. This will keep Talladega Superspeedway wet for most of the day. Rain will slowly end from the west to east as we head into the early afternoon. Temperatures will also be extremely cold for May. Temperatures across Alabama today will remain in the 40s. 

Talladega_sat_medium

SATURDAY’S NATIONWIDE RACE: The above image is from the high resolution NAM weather model for 3pm EDT over eastern Alabama. This is what has me concerned for the Nationwide race scheduled at 3 p.m. EDT. It will all come down to when the rain finally clears out later this afternoon. If it clear out between 1 and 4 p.m. then we could have a delayed race. Unfortunately some forecast models keep the rain around eastern Alabama through the late afternoon and into the evening hours. Because the Nationwide race comes down to the timing of the rains exit it could be delayed or it could be postponed. I can’t call it a washout because we do expect clearing to take place later in the day. This is a toss up. 

SUNDAY’S SPRINT CUP RACE: This forecast is more complicated. Today we are tracking a band of showers across the state and there is a beginning and an end. For Sunday, the center of this upper level storm system is right over Alabama. This will cause a very unstable atmosphere. An unstable atmosphere will lead to the development of scattered showers.

Imagine dumping a bag of marbles on to the floor but before you do, predict where each marble will go and eventually stop. That is the challenge meteorologist have in predicting scattered showers. We know that showers will form as the day goes on but we don’t know necessarily when and where they will form and move after they form.

 Talladega_sun_medium 

Here is the high resolution NAM for 2 p.m. on Sunday, one hour after the scheduled start of the race. The center of the storm system will be right over central Alabama and areas of scattered showers will form close to the center. This model has rain right over Talladega Superspeedway at this time. It doesn’t necessarily mean that exact scenario is going to happen. What it does mean is we could see weather delays through out the afternoon. It all depends on where the rain forms and where it goes. 

The probability of seeing an official race is around 45 to 55 percent. It’s not high but I think it is possible. I have seen far worse rain forecast than this produce at least an official race. (ending the race anytime after halfway). I would say the odds of a complete race is around 40 percent at this given time. Maybe it’s the fan in me, but I am holding out hope that we can at least get this race in on Sunday. 

Temperatures will remain chilly for Sunday. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s. Because the air over Alabama will be colder than average, it is possible that some of the showers and even storms that form Sunday could contain small hail. 

This will be an ever changing weather forecast so follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN and like me on Facebook for the latest weather updates.

Conditions in Talladega, AL: Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

SATURDAY:
12:10 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup qualifying – Chilly, rain showers – temp: 46
3:00 p.m. EDT
Nationwide race – Chilly, cloudy, rain showers, ending in the afternoon – temp: 60

SUNDAY:
11:00 a.m. EDT
Sprint Cup pre-race – Cloudy, mostly cloudy, scattered rain showers – temp: 55
12:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup pre-race – Cloudy, mostly cloudy, scattered rain showers – temp: 57
1:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup race – Cloudy, mostly cloudy, scattered rain showers – temp: 58
2:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup race – Cloudy, mostly cloudy, scattered rain showers – temp: 58
3:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup race – Cloudy, mostly cloudy, scattered rain showers – temp: 57
4:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup race – Cloudy, mostly cloudy, scattered rain showers – temp: 57
5:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup race – Cloudy, mostly cloudy, scattered rain showers – temp: 57

2012 NASCAR Talladega Superspeedway Weather Forecast: Weather Changes Take Place This Weekend

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The main challenge this NASCAR weekend at Talladega Superspeedway will be the development and placement of isolated storms across Alabama.

Not a bad weather weekend for NASCAR Camping World Truck Series and Sprint Cup Series at Talladega Superspeedway. The weather will go through drastic changes this weekend as far as temperatures but will remain mostly dry.

Cold front will move in across Alabama Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The biggest impact this weekend from the cold front will be temperatures. They will go from highs in the 80s today and Saturday to highs in the 60s on Sunday. There is a slight chance of showers Saturday evening into early Sunday morning but there isn’t a lot of moisture to work with so any activity will be spotty at best. Rain is not a major concern this weekend.

Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN and like me on Facebook for the latest weather updates through the week.

Conditions in Talladega, AL: Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

FRIDAY:
10:30 a.m. EDT
Camping World Truck Series final practice – Sunny skies – temp: 68
2:30 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup Series practice – Sunny skies – temp: 81
4:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup Series final practice – Sunny skies – temp: 84
5:10 p.m. EDT
Camping World Truck Series qualifying – Sunny skies – temp: 83

SATURDAY:
12:15 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup Series qualifying – Mostly sunny – temp: 75
4:00 p.m. EDT
Camping World Truck Series race – Sun and clouds – temp: 80

SUNDAY:
12:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup Pre-Race – Clouds and some sun – temp: 61
1:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup Race – Partly sunny – temp: 63
2:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup Race – Partly sunny – temp: 66
3:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup Race – Partly sunny – temp: 66
4:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup Race – Partly sunny – temp: 67
5:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup Race – Partly sunny – temp: 67 

2012 Talladega Superspeedway NASCAR Weather Update: Rain Ends Start Of Race Delayed

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Conditions in Talladega, AL:
Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

FORECAST UPDATE SUNDAY 11:40 a.m. EDT (5/6/2012):

Rain showers and even a thunderstorm arrived at Talladega Superspeedway this morning. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT the rain had ened and the sun had come back out. It will take an estimated two to two and half hours to dry the track. The scheduled start of the race was for 1:20 p.m. EDT but that appears to be pushed back by an hour because of track drying.

The forecast for the rest of the afternoon looks hot and steamy with clouds and sunshine. There is still a chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, but I anticipate we get this race in this afternoon.

Look for more of my NASCAR weather forecasts over at SBNation.com.

Special offer for NASCAR WXMAN readers:

Purchase MyWARN by May 31st for a one time cost of $9.99. Purchases of MyWARN on or after June 1 will fall under an $11.99 annual subscription fee pricing structure.

When you initialize the app on your phone, be sure to enter the promotional code NASCARWX to be entered in a drawing for a $10 iTunes gift card. Ten lucky winners will be drawn from the NASCAR WXMAN purchasers on June 1, 2012. Don’t forget to enter your email as well. MyWARN will never email you without your permission (unless you win!) nor divulge your email addresses to any other agencies.

Click the App Store logo below or to the right to view the app in the App Store.

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TALLADEGA NASCAR WEATHER FORECAST

2012 Talladega Superspeedway NASCAR Weather Forecast: Hot With Isolated Storms

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FORECAST UPDATE SATURDAY 2:30 a.m. EDT (5/5/2012):

It will be hot and sticky this weekend at Talladega Superspeedway for the NASCAR Nationwide series race on Saturday and the Sprint Cup race on Sunday. Hoping the action on the track is hotter than the temperatures in the stands. Each afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90. It will feel like the 90s with the high dew points making it humid and muggy.

With all the moisture around each afternoon there’s the risk for a few isolated or scattered thunderstorms. The likelihood of any activity hitting the track is low but if one were to form and move over Talladega Superspeedway it probably wouldn’t last more than 30 to 45 minutes. The biggest concern this weekend for fans will be the heat and summer-like steam.

Look for more of my NASCAR weather forecasts over at SBNation.com.

Conditions in Talladega, AL:
Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

Special offer for NASCAR WXMAN readers:

Purchase MyWARN by May 31st for a one time cost of $9.99. Purchases of MyWARN on or after June 1 will fall under an $11.99 annual subscription fee pricing structure.

When you initialize the app on your phone, be sure to enter the promotional code NASCARWX to be entered in a drawing for a $10 iTunes gift card. Ten lucky winners will be drawn from the NASCAR WXMAN purchasers on June 1, 2012. Don’t forget to enter your email as well. MyWARN will never email you without your permission (unless you win!) nor divulge your email addresses to any other agencies.

Click the App Store logo below or to the right to view the app in the App Store.

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TALLADEGA NASCAR WEATHER FORECAST

2012 Talladega Superspeedway NASCAR Weather Forecast: Mostly Dry, Isolated Storms Possible

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FORECAST UPDATE FRIDAY 1 a.m. EDT (5/4/2012):

Because of rain on Thursday at Talladega Superspeeday, NASCAR Nationwide Series qualifying has been canceled. Instead of qualifying later today there will be a Nationwide practice. The rest of the forecast looks to be on track for the remainder of the weekend.

The main challenge this NASCAR weekend will be the development and placement of isolated storms across Alabama. It will look and feel more like summer with humid conditions and highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Weak disturbance will move across the state this weekend and with plenty of heat and moisture in the atmosphere some storms could fire up in the afternoon. Although the severe threat is low isolated storms that do form could be strong.

I don’t anticipate any more major rain delays or cancellations like we saw Thursday but a storm or two over the next three days is possible and can’t be ruled out this weekend. If you are going to Talladega, prepare for the heat and steam of summer and make sure you have plenty of water. Also keep an eye to the sky and be weather alert for developing storms.

Look for more of my NASCAR weather forecasts over at SBNation.com.

Conditions in Talladega, AL:
Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

Special offer for NASCAR WXMAN readers:

Purchase MyWARN by May 31st for a one time cost of $9.99. Purchases of MyWARN on or after June 1 will fall under an $11.99 annual subscription fee pricing structure.

When you initialize the app on your phone, be sure to enter the promotional code NASCARWX to be entered in a drawing for a $10 iTunes gift card. Ten lucky winners will be drawn from the NASCAR WXMAN purchasers on June 1, 2012. Don’t forget to enter your email as well. MyWARN will never email you without your permission (unless you win!) nor divulge your email addresses to any other agencies.

Click the App Store logo below or to the right to view the app in the App Store.

Get MyWARN from the iTunes Store now!

Special limited time NASCAR WXMAN price: $9.99

TALLADEGA NASCAR WEATHER FORECAST

2012 Talladega Superspeedway NASCAR Weather Forecast: Hot With Isolated Storms

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FORECAST UPDATE THURSDAY 1 a.m. EDT (5/3/2012):

With the exception of today, most of this weekend’s NASCAR weather forecast at Talladega Superspeedway is dry but very hot. The NASCAR Nationwide Series is scheduled to practice later this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon and could cancel or reschedule these practices.

Friday through the rest of the weekend the general weather forecast is the same. It will be hot as high temperatures get into the upper 80s and even 90s for the weekend. It will also be very muggy with dew points into the upper 60s and near 70. With plenty of moisture in the atmosphere an isolated shower or storm can’t be ruled out. The likelihood of a storm causing problems for NASCAR this weekend is very low but still needs to be mentioned.

If you are going to Talladega this weekend, be prepared to sweat. Have plenty of water, take lots of breaks to rest and stay cool.

Look for more of my NASCAR weather forecasts over at SBNation.com.

Conditions in Talladega, AL:
Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

Special offer for NASCAR WXMAN readers:

Purchase MyWARN by May 31st for a one time cost of $9.99. Purchases of MyWARN on or after June 1 will fall under an $11.99 annual subscription fee pricing structure.

When you initialize the app on your phone, be sure to enter the promotional code NASCARWX to be entered in a drawing for a $10 iTunes gift card. Ten lucky winners will be drawn from the NASCAR WXMAN purchasers on June 1, 2012. Don’t forget to enter your email as well. MyWARN will never email you without your permission (unless you win!) nor divulge your email addresses to any other agencies.

Click the App Store logo below or to the right to view the app in the App Store.

Get MyWARN from the iTunes Store now!

Special limited time NASCAR WXMAN price: $9.99

2011 Talladega Superspeedway NASCAR Weather Forecast: Sunny & Cool Weekend

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Talladega, AL

SAT
Oct. 22
SUN
Oct. 23

Sunny skies Sunny skies
High: 68
Low: 38
High: 72
Low: 37

FORECAST UPDATE Friday 3:00 PM ET:

Weather forecast for NASCAR weekend at Talladega Superspeedway is very nice but feel very much like fall. For those camping out or spending early mornings at the track. Lots of sunshine, light winds and highs in the mid to upper 60s. It may not feel hot but make sure you use the sunscreen. Heat has nothing to do with whether or not you get burned but the radiation you get from the sun. Have a great weekend and here is to some great racing at the track.

Conditions in Talladega, AL:

Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

Look for my detailed weather forecast along with full on-track schedule at SBNation.com

2011 Talladega Superspeedway Weather Forecast: Tornado Watch until 9pm CDT

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Click here for the Latest Forecast Conditions in Talladega, AL:
Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

Very GOOD & Useful Alabama Weather Links:
AlabamaWX.com | ABC33/40 |

A Tornado Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for Central & southern Alabama until 9pm CDT.

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1120 AM UNTIL 900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION…CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER SERN MS/SWRN AL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS WW AREA WITHIN A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER IN WAKE OF RETREATING WARM FRONT.  HERE…THE COMBINATION OF DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S AND DIABATIC HEATING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 200-400 M2 PER S2/ WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME SIGNIFICANT/…LARGE HAIL APPROACHING 2.0-2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

 

CURRENT WATCHES, WARNINGS & ADVISORIES IN ALABAMA: Warning Map | Mobile Warning Map

A Tornado Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for tornado development. People located in and around the watch area should keep an eye to the sky and listen to their NOAA Weather Radio all hazards or tune to local broadcast media for further weather information. The watch is intended information. The watch is intended to review safety rules.

A Tornado Warning is issued when a developing tornado has been detected by National Weather Service Doppler radar or a reliable report of a tornado has been reported. A Tornado Warning is usually issued for portions of one or two counties… for an hour or less. The storm could also produce large hail and destructive straight line winds. If the Tornado Warning includes your neighborhood or work place… you should seek safe shelter immediately.

I can’t stress enough the seriousness of this situation for this afternoon and evening. I don’t want people to panic I want them to be informed, know what is possible and make decision based on that information. NOW IS THE TIME TO BE THINKING & PLANNING. Do not wait until a warning has been issued for Talladega county to decided where you should go. The worst place to be this afternoon would be at a campsite, in a motor home, a RV or a bus.

Does all of these forecast mean a tornado will occur with every storm that gets close or passes near Talladega or other parts of Alabama, the answer is no. What you are looking at is a scenario in the atmosphere that lends itself to storms developing into very dangerous storms. With large hail possibly 1-2 inches in diameter. Dangerous and destructive winds over 60 mph and of course forming tornadoes. Some concern with these tornadoes is that they could be long lasting. Do not take any warning lightly.

Someone over Twitter last year sent me an excellent link from StockCarScience.com explaining to fans how Tornadoes form. Since I don’t have a lot of time to do that myself please click on the link a nice resource I will share a couple of sections from the post:

Some Myths Debunked

  • Opening windows does nothing. Yes, the pressure may drop outside, but it is almost impossible for the pressure differential to be so great as to cause the house to “explode”. There is actually evidence that opening windows is worse in terms of damage to the house. If it’s a really serious tornado, it is going to do some damage and it is not going to care whether your windows are open. (A tornado also can’t lift up your house and deposit it in Oz, but it gave me an idea for a funny story that involves Kevin Harvick as Dorothy and the media as the Munchkins.)
  • Highway overpasses are not safe places during a tornado. Steel-reinforced concrete is strong, but not stronger than a tornado. If the overpass is hit by a tornado, it can fall and anyone in the vicinity is in danger of being hit by debris. If you think about it, the area underneath an overpass basically funnels all the wind through that area, so you are in much more danger being under an overpass than you are in your house.
  • No geographical feature protects you from a tornado. They go over the river and through the woods, through cities, over hills, and basically wherever they care to go. Lying in a ditch is the best thing to do if you’re outside, but it is much better not to be outside.
  • Motorhomes and RVs do NOT cause tornadoes; however, you are much more likely to be injured by a tornado or high winds in a RV or motorhome than you are in a permanent structure.

What to Do

What you SHOULD DO, especially if you are out at the racetrack:

  • If you’re at home and planning on heading for the track, listen to the radio to make sure activities haven’t been delayed or cancelled because of the weather.
  • Have a weather radio with fresh batteries and spares. Listen to the weather, watch it on TV, and be aware that you may need to take action on short notice.
  • If you’re camping or RV’ing, have a flashlight and emergency kit that includes the basics, like bandages, antiseptic, etc.
  • Make an emergency plan for your group – identify two places to meet if something happens and you are separated. One place should be near your campsite or seats and another should be a little further away, to be used if there is damage to the first area. Cell phone lines often become overloaded during emergencies, so don’t count on being able to reach each other on the phone.
  • Don’t get falling down stupid drunk. You may need to think quickly. Wait until after the storm warnings have expired to enjoy the special pleasures of Talladega.
  • If you hear sirens or radio/television reports that a storm is coming, get into a permanent structure if at all capable. My guess is that the safest place at Talladega if you’re out camping is in a ground-floor bathroom in a concrete structure. Like being on an airplane, identify two such structure because there are likely to be a lot of people with the same idea you have. If you can get underneath something heavy, like a sturdy table, a workbench, or anything else that would protect your head from falling debris, that’s even better.
  • Remember that NASCAR fans share a unique bond that makes us more like family than strangers, even if we’ve just met. If someone needs help, help them – even if they are wearing a xx t-shirt (where xx is your least favorite driver’s car number).

Monitor local weather outlets like radio or weather radio. On FM Radio Thunder 92.7 WDTR on Twitter at Thunder927. Also many race scanners have the capability of accessing the NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio Frequencies. I’d check on the local ones in the area in set those on your scanner. local WX frequency for Anniston Alabama is 162.475 You can also find your frequency here – NWR Stations Listing for Alabama I also recommend on TV ABC 33/40 out of Birmingham.
I will be tracking the weather and storms through the afternoon and evening. You will get updates from me via Twitter (@NASCAR_WXMAN) Facebook (My Fan Page) and my other main NASCAR WX-Man site. I also have the radar up and running here with the track marked on the map – This Weeks NASCAR Radar.

REST OF THE WEEKEND FORECAST – Partly sunny to sunny weather Saturday and Sunday, high in the low 70s on Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 70s with LOTS OF SUNSHINE for Sunday’s Aaron’s 499.

Look for my detailed weather forecast along with full on-track schedule at SBNation.com

SPCOutlookFriday

2011 Talladega Superspeedway Weather Forecast: Update on Severe Weather Today

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Click here for the Latest Forecast

Conditions in Talladega, AL:
Click here for Current Weather ConditionsLook at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

FORECAST UPDATE Friday 9AM ET:

Storms from last night have moves into Mississippi and northwest Alabama. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for western and northern Alabama, central and eastern Louisiana, and central and southern Mississippi.  These storms are not the main activity we will be watching for later this afternoon. There could be a few scattered storms to develop through the late morning and early afternoon but as the day wears on and we move into the late afternoon and especially the night time hours these storms will start to form a line. Keep in mind I am not saying or even forecasting a tornado for Talladega Superspeedway, but the risk of severe weather that features strong damaging gusty winds, a risk for some large and hail and COULD produce a tornado. Overall the biggest threat will be the damaging winds, there is even a wind advisory for today from 10am until 1am for wind gusts over 30 to 40 mph.

The above graphic is from the Storm Prediction Center and it puts most of AL, MS in their MDT or “Moderate” risk for  severe weather. What does the MDT mean:

A MDT risk implies a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms, and in most situations, greater magnitude of severe weather and greater forecaster confidence compared to a SLGT risk. A MDT risk is usually reserved for days with substantial severe storm coverage, or an enhanced chance for a significant severe storm outbreak. Typical MDT risk days include multiple tornadic supercells with very large hail, or intense squall lines with widespread damaging winds.

Here is the National Weather Services Storm Prediction Center’s Public Severe weather Outlook:

…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT…

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE PARTS OF THE SOUTH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE: MUCH OF ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING WINDS…IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND UPLIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT…WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS CALLED SUPERCELLS.  ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER MAY ARISE FROM THE REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY’S SEVERE STORMS IN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS…AS THAT ACTIVITY CONTINUES EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

THE SUPERCELLS…AND THEIR ATTENDANT THREAT FOR TORNADOES…HIGH WIND…AND LARGE HAIL…LIKELY WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

This is could be particularly dangerous situation especially for an outdoor event like Talladega. Campers, fans and media will need to monitor weather conditions from local sources like Thunder 92.7 WDTR on Twitter at Thunder927. Also many race scanners have the capability of accessing the NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio Frequencies. I’d check on the local ones in the area in set those on your scanner. You can also go to any Radio Shack and even some Wal-Marts carry them for around $30.

I’ve teamed up with ABC 33/40 Meteorologist James Spann (on Twitter @spann) & AlabamaWX.com to help provide all those race fans & media who are out at the track with all the weather information possible to keep them safe and informed. Here is part of his discussion from this morning:

WHAT CAN I EXPECT? All modes of severe weather are possible with this event. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. I don’t think we have major flash flooding issues, although some local problems are possible for a short while as the heavier storms pass by. The greatest risk of tornadoes will come this afternoon and early this evening in the discrete supercells over Alabama; later tonight the main issue will be damaging wind as the storms evolve into a line.

WILL WILL THE STORMS GET HERE? It makes no sense to ask “when will the storm arrive in my community?” today since initially the storms will be scattered, and not in a big line. While elevated storms have already formed this morning at 5:00 over West Alabama, we do not expect any severe weather in Alabama before 10:00 this morning. A few severe storms could develop over far West Alabama between 10:00 a.m. and 12:00 noon, but the main threat for the rest of the state will begin around 12:00 noon. Of course, initially the threat will continue over West Alabama, but storms will develop eastward through the rest of the afternoon into the evening hours. Then tonight everything rolls over into a long squall line, which will move into Georgia around midnight.

So, generally speaking, we have a 12 hour window from around 12:00 noon to 12:00 midnight when severe weather is likely across Alabama. It will indeed be a long duration event.

WHAT ABOUT TALLADEGA? This is very problematic with over 20,000 people camping on the grounds around the Talladega Superspeedway. This morning you need to be sure you have a way of getting tornado warnings (NOAA Weather Radio, app on your phone, etc), and then develop a plan. Needless to say, we don’t want anybody in a tent, camper, or RV when a tornadic storm passes through. There is no magic answer here, but everybody has to take personal responsibility to be sure you and your family are safe.

BOTTOM LINE: Take a little time this morning and review your severe weather plan, so if we do get into a serious situation you will know exactly what to do. Let’s all hope the marginal instability can keep this from becoming a big severe weather day, but we have to be prepared.

IF YOU DON’T ALREADY YOU WILL NEED TO KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A WATCH & WARNING:

A severe weather WATCH means how it sounds “Watch Out” severe weather COULD occur but it doesn’t mean it will. This is the first line of defense if you will. A watch will typically be issued several hours before the development of any severe weather. During a watch you should prepare and think about what you would do when and if severe weather occurs.

A severe weather WARNING will be issued if severe weather is present & occurring, this mean you need to seek shelter IMMEDIATELY when a WARNING is issued for your current location. Warning Map | Mobile Warning Map

I will be tracking the weather and storms through the afternoon and evening. You will get updates from me via Twitter (@NASCAR_WXMAN) Facebook (My Fan Page) and my other main NASCAR WX-Man site. I also have the radar up and running here with the track marked on the map – This Weeks NASCAR Radar.

REST OF THE WEEKEND FORECAST – Partly sunny to sunny weather Saturday and Sunday, high in the low 70s on Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 70s with LOTS OF SUNSHINE for Sunday’s Aaron’s 499.

Look for my detailed weather forecast along with full on-track schedule at SBNation.com

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