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Pocono Raceway
NASCAR Weather Forecast Pocono Raceway: Rain Concern Sunday
01 year ago
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Welcome to all of you who are visiting from the Pocono Raceway email, I will keep you updated through the weekend and on race day. If you have any questions or comments please feel free to leave your thoughts.
Conditions in Long Pond, PA:
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Long Pond, PA
| SAT July 31 | SUN Aug 1 | MON Aug 2 |
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| Mostly Sunny | Mostly cloudy, showers & storms likely at times. | Partly sunny, scattered showers & storms. |
| High: 78 Low: 48 |
High: 75 Low: 56 |
High: 73 Low: 59 |
FORECAST DISCUSSION Update Friday 3:30 PM EDT:
You couldn’t ask for better weather today or Saturday. Lots of sunshine very comfortable temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Our focus is not Friday or Saturday but for Sunday. I guess you just can’t have a Pocono race without the threat of a little rain, and that is what we have on Sunday.
A weak system will move out of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday night into Pennsylvania on Sunday. Clouds will increase and so will the threat for showers and thunderstorms for Sunday afternoon and evening. The probability of rain continues to increase as we get closer to Sunday, that’s never a good sign. Unlike the spring race when we were tracking a cold front that had a narrow line of storms this may be more wide spread with scattered and broken areas of showers. To be honest with you, it will rain at some point on Sunday, and very likely could get a shower at the track before, during or after the race. Timing is a real big issue but most indications continue to show afternoon evening the best time for showers and possible storms. Will continue to monitor and update.
If I had tickets to this weekends race I’d still go, even knowing what I know now that there’s a risk of rain and it could delay, shorten and in the worst case scenario, which seems to be the least likely at this point, postpone the race.
If you want a forecast broken down by on track activities schedule please check out my forecast over at SBNation.com
Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.
NASCAR Weather Forecast Pocono Raceway: Scattered Sunday Showers
01 year ago
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Conditions in Long Pond, PA:
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Long Pond, PA
| THU July 29 | FRI July 30 | SAT July 31 | SUN Aug 1 |
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| Variably cloudy, scattered showers or storm | Sunny & cooler | Mostly Sunny | Clouds & sun, poss. scattered showers or storms. |
| High: 83 |
High: 77 Low: 56 |
High: 78 Low: 51 |
High: 73 Low: 55 |
FORECAST DISCUSSION Thursday 10 AM EDT:
Starting to get a better picture of this weekends weather forecast. It isn’t entirely bad but come Sunday we may not be entirely dry. Friday and Saturday will feature sunny and very pleasant weather as high pressure moves out of the Great lakes and across Pennsylvania. Temperatures will be pleasant in the 70s.
Once the high pressure passes off to the east and out over the Atlantic the atmosphere become more unsettled, this increases the possibility of a few scattered to isolated showers and possible storm Sunday. Unlike the last race where we tracked a cold front and a line of storms and was able to give an estimate of arrival, these showers will be more spotty in nature and there is no telling when and where storms or showers will develop. There should be plenty of dry time but a shower can not be ruled out for Sunday.
Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.
NASCAR Weather Forecast Pocono Raceway: Rain Creep Into the Forecast
01 year ago
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Conditions in Long Pond, PA:
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Long Pond, PA
| WED July 28 | THU July 29 | FRI July 30 | SAT July 31 | SUN Aug 1 |
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| Sunny Skies & Very warm | Variably cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm | Sunny & cooler | Mostly Sunny | Clouds & sun, chance of isolated to scattered showers or storms. |
| High: 86 |
High: 83 Low: 65 |
High: 77 Low: 56 |
High: 76 Low: 50 |
High: 72 Low: 55 |
FORECAST DISCUSSION Wednesday 9 AM EDT:
There’s a reason I don’t like to post my NASCAR race weekend forecast any earlier than Wednesday and my Monday “First Look at Pocono” post proved my point. I caved this week to the pressure to get a forecast out early when I knew that there was a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. On Monday the computer models were mainly dry for Sunday and I put that in my forecast but there was still enough doubt that I wrote this near the end of the discussion:
“As of now, the weekend looks dry, but there were a few things in the models that have my attention and will be monitored as we get closer to the weekend. Right now I’d say I am about 60% certain that the weekend will be dry.”
It appears now after watching the models develop Tuesday and this morning that at least the threat of widely scattered showers are possible Sunday afternoon across eastern and southeastern Pennsylvania. Still too many variables to determine when it comes to timing and location of these showers and possible storms Sunday afternoon.
The good news is that Friday & Saturday look picture perfect with plenty of sunshine and very pleasant temperatures in the mid 70s. It will be great for practice, qualifying and the Camping World Truck Series race on Saturday. The bad news, as mentioned above, is the uncertainty in the forecast. Although it doesn’t look like a washout for Sunday there is still a threat for showers and possible storms and from what I’ve seen at this point the models are having a hard time run to run trying to figure out what it wants to do with Sunday. In situations like these it can be safe to lean on climatology of the area for a forecast and as many NASCAR fans & locals of Long Pond, PA know, its usually a safe bet to keep the mention of rain in the forecast for Pocono Race Weekend.
Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.
NASCAR Weather Forecast Pocono Raceway: First Look, It’s Dry
11 year ago
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Conditions in Long Pond, PA:
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Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com
Long Pond, PA
| WED July 28 | THU July 29 | FRI July 30 | SAT July 31 | SUN Aug 1 |
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| Sunny Skies | Partly Sunny, chance of a thunderstorm | Mostly Sunny | Mostly Sunny | Sun and clouds |
| High: 86 Low: 60 |
High: 82 Low: 66 |
High: 75 Low: 56 |
High: 76 Low: 53 |
High: 79 Low: 54 |
FORECAST DISCUSSION Monday12 PM EDT:
If you asked anyone who follows NASCAR to give a forecast for Pocono, whether they’re a meteorologist or not, they would probably say, “Expect Rain.” That seems to be the trend for Pocono Raceway the past few summers. 2009 Pocono race in July/Aug had to be run on Monday because of heavy steady rains. That started a 2 race rain out streak that continued the next week at Watkins Glen.
This time around, the outlook over the next 7 days looks promising, but I will warn you take any forecast this far out with a grain of salt. As of now, the weekend looks dry, but there were a few things in the models that have my attention and will be monitored as we get closer to the weekend. Right now I’d say I am about 60% certain that the weekend will be dry.
I also want to take the time today to thank a few people for allowing me to post my forecasts to their sites. Paul Poteet the “Indiana Weatherman” at http://paulpoteet.com for posting my forecasts during the Indianapolis Brickyard weekend, and also Jeff Gluck Motor Sports Editor for SBNation.com for allowing me to post my NASCAR weather forecasts. There you can find my weather forecast for all races broken down by scheduled time of practice, qualifying and race start times.
Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.
Strong Storms around 1:30pm – Tornado Watch – Pocono Raceway Forecast Update (6/6)
01 year ago
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Conditions in Long Pond, PA:
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Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com
For Local News Visit PAHomepage.com
SUNDAY FORECAST: Showers and storms likely from late morning into the early afternoon some of these storms could be strong to potentially severe. Showers and storms or more isolated and sparse later this afternoon. Windy with west-southwest winds 15-25 mph gust over 30. Temperature 75
FORECAST DISCUSSION Update 12:30 pm: Line of storms continue to get closer to the track as of 12:30pm storms were less than 50 miles away and were moving at about 50 mph. ETA of storms appears 1:30 to 2pm. Storms have produced thunderstorms warning in counties to the west. Also there is a Tornado watch for Pocono Raceway. That mean a storm could potentially produce a Tornado. Monitor severe weather from local radio outlets if at the track. Rain should end by 2:30pm.
Then they have to dry the track which could take 2 to 2.5 hours. That would put start of race, earliest 4:30pm or as late as 5pm. Then estimate 4 hours to run the race so you’re looking at 8pm with sunset at 8:30pm. The question I have is would NASCAR start a race they know or suspect will not go the full distance? We will be monitoring and updating through the rest of the afternoon
Look for Updates here as well as on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN
MONDAY FORECAST: If the race were to get rained out there is no issue with weather for Monday. It will be mostly sunny, cooler with highs in the low 70s but very nice.
Sunday’s Forecast Still looking Very Wet – Sprint Cup – Pocono Raceway Forecast (6/5)
21 year ago
Radar for Pocono will be Live Sunday morning
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Conditions in Long Pond, PA:
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FORECAST DISCUSSION Saturday 1:45 pm EDT:
SUNDAY FORECAST: Mainly cloudy, with showers and storms likely especially towards late morning into early afternoon. Temperature mid 70s (75)
The below graphics are 3 representations of what I look at when I talk about computer models. I show you this to give you a better idea and understanding of what I am seeing and why I think the out come will be showers around the start of the race and a possible washout.
There are subtle differences in all three of these models. All represent 2pm EDT and show a storm system moving through northern Pennsylvania and southern New York. They all have a cold front passing through eastern PA around midday into the early afternoon. That may be the main focus of showers and storms.
Model 1 may be the “Best Case Scenario” The rain is not as steady, appears to be more scattered and it tries to bring drier air into central PA sooner than the others.
Model 2 is what I would consider to be the “Worst Case Scenario” It has some of the heaviest rains with showers & storms right over the track right around the start of the race. This scenario would practically guarantee a race on Monday.
Model 3 is somewhere in the middle and about what I am thinking. It has scattered showers with thunderstorms around. Not all the rain is heavy but it also has the area cloudy and very damp.
I am not NASCAR and I don’t make the call, but I think we have a 75-80% chance of seeing a rain out with a race on Monday. I hope I am wrong, but I just don’t see a lot of data that supports a complete race or even half a race, but stranger things have happened. I work very hard to provide the most accurate forecast I can, I don’t usually like to be wrong but in situations like this I hope I am.
MONDAY FORECAST: If the race were to get rained out there is no issue with weather for Monday. It will be mostly sunny, cooler with highs in the low 70s but very nice.
Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.
Rain Showers & Storms for Pocono Weekend – Will Racing be Washed Out?
01 year ago
Radar for Pocono will be Live Sunday morning
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Conditions in Long Pond, PA:
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FORECAST DISCUSSION Friday 11 PM EDT:
SATURDAY FORECAST: Mainly cloudy, limited sunshine lingering showers and storms in the morning then a few scattered showers and storm in the afternoon. High temperature in the upper 70s.
This forecast is not improving. Practice for the Sprint cup series is at 10 and 11 am EDT lingering showers left over from Friday are possible during the morning hours. The best time Saturday will be in the afternoon but that is after practice.
SUNDAY FORECAST: Mainly cloudy, damp with showers and storms likely, some in the morning then more in the afternoon. High temperature mid 70s.
This forecast has progressively gotten worst. Earlier in the week I thought we had an 80% chance of getting the race in now I think we have like a 70% of this race being ran on Monday. It seems as the models try to get closer on a solution for Sunday they keep bringing more and more rain into eastern Pennsylvania.
Now for those that want that possible silver lining to the forecast. There are some solutions that take most of the rain to the north of the track into New York and even hold rain off until later in the afternoon. I am not sure this scenario is likely but if it were to happen then there would be time to get the race started and maybe rain shortened.
MONDAY FORECAST: If the race were to get rain out there is no issue with weather for Monday. It will be mostly sunny, cooler but nice.
Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.
Friday Morning Update on Pocono Weather – Rain in the Forecast
01 year ago
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Conditions in Long Pond, PA:
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Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com
Long Pond, PA
| FRI June 4 | SAT June 5 | SUN June 6 | MON June 7 |
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| Mainly dry, partly sunny, humid isolated storm afternoon evening | Mostly Cloudy, chc. of showers mainly morning. | Mostly cloudy, showers and storms likely | Partly Sunny |
| High: 82 |
High: 79 Low: 63 |
High: 70 Low: 59 |
High: 71 Low: 48 |
FORECAST DISCUSSION Friday 11 AM EDT:
Practice is at Noon followed by qualifying at 3:30 pm EDT. We will see sunshine peek through high clouds this afternoon. It will be warm with highs in the low 80s. There is a chance of an isolated storm or 2 to form. I feel that confidence is high that practice and qualifying will get done with out issue. The only thing that makes me nervous is the placement of a cold front across the region. This is a good focal point for isolated showers and storms to form. Although the risk is low it only takes one storm to ruin a good day.
Saturday and Sunday is when the forecast become very interesting and complicated. Many of the models have been all over the place the last 24 to 36 hours. They’ve had a really hard time trying to pin down timing and placement of rain over the weekend.
SATURDAY is actually looking like the better day of the 2 now. There could be showers in the morning and then a chance of a few isolated showers and storms in the afternoon. What makes this forecast complicated is a boundary between warmer air to the south and cooler air to the north. Pocono should be on the warmer side of this boundary Saturday that’s why I think a couple of storms could fire in the afternoon.
SUNDAY the cooler air tries to work into the region along with a storm system. The placement of this storm could mean a lot in the type of weather that occurs at the track. My gut says there will be rain on Sunday and I am thinking more and more that it will take place in the afternoon. I’m still not ready to say that the rain will postpone the race to Monday but I am also not ruling that out.
If I was going and knowing what I know now I’d still plan on going Sunday but I’d be watching the weather forecast very closely for every update. I’d also see if I could go back on Monday just in case the race were to be postpone because there is definitely that possibility at the moment.
Please know there is a lot of uncertainty with this forecast. I always try my best to give you the most honest straight forward information I can. If it’s going to be nice I’ll tell you that it will be nice, if it’s going to rain I’ll tell you that and if I don’t really know I’ll tell you I don’t know but give you my best educated guess on what I think will happen. That is the situation I find myself in this morning. Expect another update later this afternoon or evening.
Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.
To Rain or Not to Rain That is the Question? – @PoconoRaceway Forecast (6/3)
01 year ago
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Conditions in Long Pond, PA:
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Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com
Long Pond, PA
| FRI June 4 | SAT June 5 | SUN June 6 | MON June 7 |
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| Mainly dry, partly sunny, humid isolated storm afternoon evening | Partly sunny, chance of showers and storms. | Clouds, limited sunshine, unsettled with scattered showers/storms | Partly Sunny |
| High: 82 Low: 60 |
High: 79 Low: 61 |
High: 73 Low: 62 |
High: 71 Low: 48 |
FORECAST DISCUSSION Thursday 4 PM EDT:
These are the kind of forecasts that keep meteorologist up at night. We will have a battle setting up across the state of Pennsylvania between cool air and warm air. Where these two air masses clash will be the focal point for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
FRIDAY: Although there is a small chance of afternoon/evening storms most of this day will be dry. I don’t think weather will be a factor for practice at 11:30am and honestly I feel that qualifying at 3:40pm will go off with out a hitch but that would be the time that one of those isolated storms could be an issue.
SATURDAY & SUNDAY: This is the part of the forecast that is giving me headaches. As mentioned above a boundary between cool & warm air will be developing across Pennsylvania where these two air masses meet that is where showers and storms will be found. Saturday appears to be the wettest day of the weekend with the best chance of showers and thunderstorms. This could definitely have an impact on Sprint Cup practice scheduled at 10 AM and 11:20 AM and very possible rain out the ARCA scheduled for 1pm on Saturday.
Since the last time I updated Sunday became a lot more interesting to forecast. Below are 2 models interpretation of what they think will happen on Sunday around 2pm EDT:
As you can see both of these models are for the same time on Sunday but have 2 totally different scenarios. This is why I said this is a very complicated forecast. The key here will be the timing and placement of a cold front. In the first picture, rain is shown across much of the state of PA and it puts the start of the race in jeopardy. The bottom image has the rain already through and past by the afternoon. That may be a little too fast from all that I’ve seen over the week. I think rain is a potential risk to the race on Sunday but there are just too many question and not enough answer for Sunday. This may be a forecast we tinker and tweak the closer we get. I hope we can see more consistency in the forecast before then. That is why I have mostly cloudy skies. I think Long Pond and Pocono Raceway are on the cooler side of things on Sunday with most of the rain happening Saturday night into Sunday morning. I have talked to other meteorologist who feel the rain holds off until after halfway and comes in later. Basically as another meteorologist mentioned in conversation 10 meteorologist could look at the same information and come out with 12 different forecasts. Please bare with me as we get more information on Sunday’s forecast.
Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.
Times of Dry With Times of Wet – Sprint Cup – @PoconoRaceway Forecast (6/2)
01 year ago
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Conditions in Long Pond, PA:
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Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com
Long Pond, PA
| THU June 3 | FRI June 4 | SAT June 5 | SUN June 6 | MON June 7 |
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| AM Sunshine, incr. clouds afternoon shower/storms | Sun & clouds, mainly dry isolated to sct. showers/storms | Mostly cloudy with showers & storms likely | Clouds, some sun, mainly dry. sct’d showers/storms | Partly Sunny |
| High: 80 Low: 61 |
High: 78 Low: 58 |
High: 77 Low: 61 |
High: 73 Low: 57 |
High: 70 Low: 51 |
FORECAST DISCUSSION Wednesday 5 PM EDT:
Looking at the above icons with sunshine hidden by scary looking thunderstorms from Thursday into Sunday probably has many of you nervous. Especially those who may be attending this weekends race. Unfortunately these were the best icons I had to depict the weather for this weekend. It is a challenging and complicated forecast, but I think there is more dry than wet time.
The only day I see as a real problem is Saturday as a storms system moves through New York and Northern Pennsylvania. Friday overall looks mainly dry. There could be a few isolated showers or storms but for the most part I think the day is dry. Sunday is another day I think is mainly dry but I am just comfortable or confident enough yet to remove the mention of a shower or storm forming sometime in the afternoon. With that said I don’t see a wash out like we saw last summer at the second Pocono race.
It will also be cooler than what the last few weeks have been. Highs on Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 70s to near 80 with cooler air arriving behind the storm that moves through on Saturday. Highs on Sunday will be at or in the low 70s.
Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.
