Nationwide Series

FORECAST UPDATE SATURDAY 3 AM EDT (3/24/2012):

Small changes have been made to the weather forecast for Sunday’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Auto Club Speedway. Over the last twenty-four hours the tendacy of most of the weather forecasts has been to slow the arrival of the Pacific storm and associated rain. As of Friday night, the models showed the rain arrival to be between 2pm EDT (the earliest) and 5pm EDT (the latest).

You may be asking can NASCAR get all 400 miles in during that potential window? If they start the race a little earlier than 3pm EDT and because the race is shorter at 400 miles (average two hours and forty-five minutes) they could easily get past halfway and possibly completed if the rain were to holds off even longer. All of this is dependent on the rain arriving two to three hours after the start of the race.

Timing of precipitation can make or break a forecast. It’s one of the biggest challenges forecasters and meteorologists face. It’s even more challenging when you have four or five different sources giving you four or five different times. My current probability that we see racing on Sunday is 40% to 50%. That’s much better than what I was thinking on Thursday but it all hinges on when the rain actually arrives. If it moves in during the earliest time mentioned above (3pm EDT) then we would be looking at Monday racing and I haven’t taken that scenario off the table just yet either.

If the race were to be postponed to Monday, the forecast looks good around midday and the afternoon as the rain quickly exit during the morning.

FORECAST BOTTOM LINE
It is going to rain Sunday in Fontana, California the question is when does the rain arrive. We have two scenarios: Number one, best case scenario, rain arrives two to three hours after the start of the race and we get to see racing, with the race ending after halfway or possibly the full 400 miles. Current odds are 40% to 50%.

Number two, worst case scenario, rain arrives as the race is about to begin and the race is postponed or rescheduled until Monday. Current odds, 50% to 60%.

Because of the difficult and ever changing nature of this forecast please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN and like me on Facebook for the latest Weather updates through the week.

Look for more of my NASCAR weather forecastsover at SBNation.com.

Conditions in Fontana, CA:
Click here for Current Weather Conditions | Look at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

Fontana, CA

Special offer for NASCAR WXMAN readers:

Purchase MyWARN by May 31st for a one time cost of $9.99. Purchases of MyWARN on or after June 1 will fall under an $11.99 annual subscription fee pricing structure.

When you initialize the app on your phone, be sure to enter the promotional code NASCARWX to be entered in a drawing for a $10 iTunes gift card. Ten lucky winners will be drawn from the NASCAR WXMAN purchasers on June 1, 2012. Don’t forget to enter your email as well. MyWARN will never email you without your permission (unless you win!) nor divulge your email addresses to any other agencies.

Click the App Store logo below or to the right to view the app in the App Store.

Special limited time NASCAR WXMAN price: $9.99