Mostly dry weather expected for the final Sprint Cup series race of the 2012 NASCAR season at Homestead-Miami Speedway. All weekend there has been a stalled front just off the eastern coast of Florida. This has been the focusing mechanism for isolated showers near and around Homestead-Miami Speedway all weekend. Will we see rain? More than likely not but with that front in close proximity to the track we can’t rule them out.
Although there is a small chance of an isolated afternoon shower, I don’t expect a race ending or postponing shower. I am not going to rule out a shower that causes a delay or two but overall I think the likelihood of rain affect the track this afternoon is ten percent or less.
On a personal note, I want to thank all of you who are fans of what I do and follow me on Twitter and now on Facebook. As a fan who either spends their hard earned money to go to a race or those who organizes their entire Sunday afternoon, Saturday night or the occasional Monday afternoon, to sit at home and watch a race I understand how important having accurate weather information is. I am a fan too and just like you I plan my Sunday’s and the occasional trip to a NASCAR track around the weather. All of you who follow me on Twitter, Facebook, over on SBNation.com, listen to me on Sirius-XM NASCAR Morning Drive and occasionally on PRN, you’re the reason I do this, thank you.
Three years ago I was just like all of you, a NASCAR fan. I was watching a race, listening to the commentators talk about approaching rain but never showing those watching a radar or just how long it would take the rain to arrive. Then there is always the fun rain delay where you listen and every announcer says, “We will be going racing anytime” when in reality it is more likely a Monday afternoon race. Knowing that, and having the skills as a meteorologist, NASCAR WXMAN (wx = abbreviation for weather) was born. I am still that fan and I am a fan of all of you. This sport has the greatest fans and you make this so much fun. Each week, NASCAR weather forecasts are a hobby. I am starting to make a little money off them but I am not going to stop my main weather gig as Chief Meteorologist at KMVT-TV in Twin Falls, ID anytime soon. Again from the bottom of my heart, THANK YOU. I will try to do updates from time to time and feel free to ask questions and let me know what you may be interested in.
12 p.m ET
Sprint Cup pre-race – Partly sunny, chance of an isolated shower – temp: 80
1 p.m ET
Sprint Cup pre-race – Partly sunny, chance of an isolated shower – temp: 81
2 p.m ET
Sprint Cup pre-race – Partly sunny, chance of an isolated shower – temp: 81
3 p.m ET
Sprint Cup race – Partly sunny, chance of an isolated shower – temp: 80
4 p.m ET
Sprint Cup race – Partly sunny, chance of an isolated shower – temp: 79
5 p.m ET
Sprint Cup race – Partly cloudy, chance of an isolated shower – temp: 77
6 p.m ET
Sprint Cup race – Partly cloudy – temp: 75
7 p.m ET
Sprint Cup race – Partly cloudy – temp: 73
FORECAST DISCUSSION TUESDAY 3 AM EDT:
All signs point to us having a NASCAR race today. The remnants of tropical storm Lee and all that moisture continue to push north into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, as very dry and cool air begins to move in behind the departing system. From what I am seeing, I feel very strong that NASCAR has a very good shot of getting the AdvoCare 500 started and completed. If someone asked me, “What are the odds we get this race started on time Tuesday Morning?” I would tell them I think we have a better than 75% chance of getting the race started at 11 am EDT. This is not good news for all the fans who were praying for some morning rain so they could watch the race later in the afternoon or possibly in the evening. Even Denny Hamlin (@DennyHamlin on Twitter) voiced his opinion about having a later start time for today’s race, “Anyone else wish @NASCAR would schedule the race for tues night?”
For those wanting to hold out hope for a delay and a later race start, there could be a few scattered to isolated showers around during the morning. Like we saw Sunday night it only takes one single shower to undo hours of drying. The trouble with predicting scattered to isolated showers is you never know when or where they will form. Overall I think the dry air wins out and we get this race started on time and finished.
WHAT IF THERE IS A DELAY?
In the small likelihood that we see a delay Tuesday morning the forecast for the afternoon and evening looks mostly dry. There could be a pop up shower or storm during that time too but the risk is very small. The other good news for track drying is that winds will be gusty and breezy out of the southwest. Sustained winds look to be between 10 and 20 mph with gust to near 25 mph.
I am very certain the AdvoCare 500 get in today, and I am becoming a believer that this race starts on time. If you are like many fans heading back to work or school, make sure you have your DVR’s set for ESPN tomorrow morning.
8 a.m EDT
Few scattered to isolated showers or storms, windy with gusts of 25 mph, mostly cloudy and cool: 68
11 a.m EDT
Start of Sprint Cup Race – Mostly cloudy, possible shower or storm, looks mainly dry still windy and cool. Southwest wind 10-20 mph gust of 25 – temp: 70
1 p.m EDT
Sprint Cup Race – Clouds, some sunshine few lingering scattered showers – temp: 73
Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest Weather updates during the race.
WEDNESDAY: Sunshine and clouds, hot
Wind: Southwest 10-15 mph
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Patchy clouds, very warm.
Wind: Southwest 5-15 mph
Temps: mid to upper 80s
FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED 12PM EDT TUESDAY:
This is a nice forecast for Tony Stewart’s Prelude to the Dream. It will be hot on Wednesday and will be very warm going into the evening. The good news no rain so weather shouldn’t play a role. All those going hope you have a great time.
Please follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN for the latest NASCAR Weather updates.
I will be honest I’d heard this time and time again from the likes of Darrell Waltrip and other racers but meteorologically & scientifically speaking it doesn’t hold much water. Out of curiosity I wanted to see what, if any, had been said about this particular theory and if there was any merit. Through my Google searches I came across this 2003 NASCAR.com story on the “Vortex Theory” when they interviewed Chad Myers, meteorologist for CNN and his thoughts are pretty much those of what I would have to say:
By Dave Rodman, Turner Sports Interactive, March 6, 2003
HAMPTON, Ga. — The theory that race cars circling on an oval track could dissipate moisture and dispel rain is invalid, said a CNN meteorologist with a background in motorsports broadcasting.
“I have heard racers talk about it,” Chad Myers said. “But any racetrack is so small compared to how large a low pressure system or a cold front is — anything Mother Nature could throw at us — it’s obviously crazy to think that it could occur.
“Then again, it’s equally crazy to think that the Farmer’s Almanac could forecast the weather a year in advance, but plenty of people believe that, as well.”
Myers knows of what he speaks on both fronts, so to speak. He is a news and weather anchor for the CNN News Group, based in Atlanta. He previously spent several years working as a pit reporter on The Nashville Network’s broadcasts of a variety of NASCAR events.
NASCAR has faced an unprecedented plague of rain in its four weekends this season — from Florida to North Carolina to Nevada.
Without fail, every one of them has suffered to some extent because of varying degrees of precipitation that have canceled events, postponed others and cut short the Daytona 500 for only the third time in its 45-year history.
Short of employing more jet dryers to prepare the surface once it actually stops raining, fans, officials and competitors are at a loss as to exactly what they can do to alleviate the condition.
But on the eve of activity for Sunday’s Bass Pro Shops MBNA 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, the chance that broadcasters will once again broach the theory that “Hey, if we got a bunch of race vehicles circulating in such a way as to create a vertical vortex of air, wouldn’t it act in such a way …”
Don’t hold your breath.
Myers said the old-time racers that have segued into broadcasting careers — he cited FOX Sports’ Darrell Waltrip and NBC’s Benny Parsons — have tended to vocalize the theory that the cars create a vortex of air that “splits” a storm and diverts rain away from a speedway.
“The little wind that 43 cars would create on a mile track or even a 2.5-mile track is nothing compared to what Mother Nature delivers in a typical thunderstorm,” Myers said. “It (vortex theory) really doesn’t have any meteorological merit at all.
“I think it’s much more a case of the topography of the area where the track is located, such as if it’s located in a valley or near mountains or hills. Literally this vortex theory holds no value at all.
“It’s a nice myth — just like getting into the southwest corner of your basement in the event of a tornado was a nice myth, also.
“It just has no basis in fact.”
Myers said it’s not surprising Waltrip and Parsons, among others, have seen enough variances of weather to question what is really up around tracks.
“I don’t really think it’s a disservice to the fans to spread this theory,” Myers said. “I really do think racers have seen black clouds head toward the racetrack and they make decisions on tires and pit stops and all of a sudden it doesn’t rain (and) they get burned.
“Someone wins and someone loses (but) I have watched radars for years at dozens of racetracks. Some of these guys, like B.P. and D.W., really believe storms could split up, but trust me, it’s never happened.”
Myers said history is the biggest dissenter in the case of the so-called vortex theory.
“Considering how much rain we’ve had and how many races have been rained out,” Myers said, “if this theory actually worked you’d never rain a race out. You can’t pick and choose when it works and when it doesn’t.”
To some, this story may change minds, for others, who believe and want to continue to believe all those cars going around in a circle counter clockwise has an impact on a much larger scale weather system will probably do so. At least if someone asks I can direct them to this article.
Above is the video of Carl Edwards crashing Brad Keselowski that has the NASCAR and all of the sports world talking. This wreck was intentionally and blatantly caused by Carl Edwards. I will be totally up front with all of you reading my blog. I am not a big fan of either of these drivers. I don’t have a strong connection either way. Yes, Carl has been around longer and there have been times when his temper and his reactions have made me ask, “What was this guy thinking?” The one that stands out and made me lose some respect for him was when he came out of the pits (not sure what Nationwide race it was) and hit Dale Jr. almost taking off his hand had Jr. not quickly brought it in. There have been numerous times, especially last season where Carl could have been accused of the same kind of aggressive driving he accused Keselowski of doing.
Looking back at the crashes and accidents involving both Brad and Carl 2 of the 3 (Taladega & the 2 at Atlanta) were what I call racing accidents. There was no true fault, just racing in my opinion. Taladega you had 2 drivers going for the win, Carl blocked once tried to block again but Keselowski had gotten inside of him and sent Carl flying. I don’t believe Brad was purposely trying to crash Carl just trying to win. Then on lap 41 at Sunday’s Kobalt Tools 500 in Atlanta the first contact was again a racing accident. Keselowski had the inside lane Carl was in the middle. Carl tried to squeeze down in front of Brad but there was no room they make contact and Carl is sent up the track into Logano. Sure Brad maybe could have checked up maybe given him more room, I don’t really know but someone’s spotter failed there and then a wreck occurred.
After the 1st wreck here is what Carl had to say, ““I know Brad has made his career on being super-aggressive. We both had a part in it and it’s not his fault, but it’s just a little too aggressive overall, I think, for that early in the race and caused us to wreck” Apparently while Carl waited for his crew to fix his car for over 100 laps he changed his mind and felt Brad was TOTALLY at fault and wanted payback.
If you’re a NASCAR fan and on Twitter like I am, you can’t escape this, everyone has an opinion. Of course the real passionate ones are those who are either Edwards fans or Keselowski fans or they are passionately against. Here are to NASCAR writers who cover the races, I personally think they make very valid points but have a completely different take on what should happen to Carl Edwards.
From SBNation.com you have Jeff Gluck who writes, “NASCAR Should Not (And Cannot) Punish Carl Edwards” his reasoning is because Edwards’ intention “was not to send the car flying.” Although I agree Edwards didn’t want to see Brad fly and flip in the air, he DID want to wreck him and his actions caused Keselowski to go flying. I’m a father of three boys ages 8 to 7 (I have a set of twins) I know from experience that 90% of the time they get in trouble their intentions are not to get in trouble and typically are harmless. Unfortunately there have been times that what they were doing could have gotten them or someone else hurt even though they weren’t trying to hurt or harm someone. As the father, I had to punish them because there are consequences for ones actions whether it was an accident or on purpose.
I’m also in the TV news business as a meteorologist. I’ve have seen numerous stories about a kid or someone else waving a gun with the intention of scaring and unfortunately the gun goes off and someone is shot. In these situations, although the intention was harmless, harm was caused and again someone had to pay a price for that accident.
Jeff also cites the “Have at it, boys” that NASCAR officials implemented at the beginning of the season:
“We are putting things back in the drivers’ hands,” said NASCAR chairman Brian France. “We’re going to open it up. We want to see what you want to see. We want to see drivers mixing it up. This is a contact sport and you’re going to see more contact. It’s going to make very good racing even better.”
Well when you read that you think, hey Carl was just doing what NASCAR wanted him to do. Go out there and police themselves but if you read more from this Jan 22, 2010 article from ESPN.com Terry Blount, “NASCAR gives drivers the green light” you will find the fine print so to speak:
“It doesn’t mean these guys have a get-out-of-jail-free card,” said NASCAR president Mike Helton. “But there’s an old saying in NASCAR: ‘If you ain’t rubbin’, you ain’t racin’.’ I think that’s what the NASCAR fans bought into and what they expect.
“Our role is to deliver that correctly while maintaining law and order. But we are the last people that want to over-regulate the sport.”
I know Jeff Gluck, I read a lot of what he writes and most of the time I agree with his opinions when he shares them, but this time I don’t. I like Jeff but I respectfully disagree with him on this issue.
I am more in line with what ESPN.com Terry Blount who wrote Monday, “NASCAR needs to drop the hammer on Edwards” he writes:
If NASCAR fluffs off Sunday’s incident and refuses to punish Carl Edwards severely, someone somewhere could die at a future event.
A harsh and uncomfortable thought, but entirely possible if Edwards’ payback moment on Brad Keselowski goes unchecked.
NASCAR’s judgment is coming in a day or two. Suspending Edwards for one race is the right thing to do.
Yes, I know all the wrong reasons why they won’t do it: hypocrisy; Brad had it coming; you can’t take a big-name driver out of the championship with a suspension.
Terry then goes on and breaks down all the “Wrong Reasons” I think everyone should read both sides before attacking anyone on their personal opinion.
Then of course there is the fun and always interesting “What if” game. Trust me I’ve been playing this myself. I have said numerous times on Twitter today that if Keselowski’s car never left the track and only slid bounced off the wall and into the infield this would not be as big of a story as it is today. In fact some people, well mainly those who don’t like Keselowski, would be applauding Carl for taking action into his own hands.
Then you have the car itself, All the flaps that were meant to keep the car from going airborne opened when Brad slid and started to go backwards unfortunately the large wing on the back of the car gives to much lift and that is why the car went airborne. Fortunately NASCAR is going back to the spoiler and let’s hope this fixes the the flying flipping cars.
Then back to Carl. All though he didn’t intend for Brad to go airborne he knew it was a possibility. He himself in an incident last year at Taladega involving Keselowski and Edwards at the end of the race where getting hit in a similar fashion sent him up up and away and he hit the catch fence seriously hurting one young fan who was there for her first ever NASCAR race.
When NASCAR said, “Have at it, boys” back in January I bet they didn’t expect to have to defend it or fine tune it this early on in the season. Although NASCAR is getting lots and lots of publicity on this crash I still think in the end no matter what their final decision is on Carl Edwards there will be a lot of NASCAR fans who will be upset.
Ok this video has been making the rounds on Twitter today. I first saw it posted by Answer this… Here is their take:
Pretty clever “outtake.” Team Lowe’s Racing introduced the video on their Facebook Fan Page and despite it being labeled as an outtake, many fans’ reactions indicate they think it was an unstaged accident.
Upon subsequent viewings, however, it’s hard to ignore the dramatic “NOT FOR AIR” title card, the film slate indicating the actual beginning of the take – and of course, how that strong Kobalt tool box didn’t move an inch when 3,400 pounds of metal landed on it.
I made the mistake by only watching the first part and didn’t catch the whole video. At first I bought into it and then I re-watched it. Being in TV long enough and I saw the them zoom on the Kobalt Toolbox and then Jimmie asked for a screwdriver I started to get the feel that this was more of a staged commercial than an actual accident.
As I was writing this post it appears my inclination that this was an ad like those old Powerade ads with Andy Roddick and LeBron James were correct. It does appear that about 25% of the people who saw this ad (based on SBNation.com NASCAR writer Jeff Gluck estimated by those who tweeted him) believed this was real.
Jeff Was able to catch up with Superman AKA Jimmie Johnson about the ad, you can read his article here on SBNation.com, “Jimmie Johnson Almost Crushed by Falling Car…NOT!“