NASCAR WX-MAN

Above is the video of Carl Edwards crashing Brad Keselowski that has the NASCAR and all of the sports world talking. This wreck was intentionally  and blatantly caused by Carl Edwards. I will be totally up front with all of you reading my blog. I am not a big fan of either of these drivers. I don’t have a strong connection either way. Yes, Carl has been around longer and there have been times when his temper and his reactions have made me ask, “What was this guy thinking?” The one that stands out and made me lose some respect for him was when he came out of the pits (not sure what Nationwide race it was) and hit Dale Jr. almost taking off his hand had Jr. not quickly brought it in. There have been numerous times, especially last season where Carl could have been accused of the same kind of aggressive driving he accused Keselowski of doing.

Looking back at the crashes and accidents involving both Brad and Carl 2 of the 3 (Taladega & the 2 at Atlanta) were what I call racing accidents. There was no true fault, just racing in my opinion. Taladega you had 2 drivers going for the win, Carl blocked once tried to block again but Keselowski had gotten inside of him and sent Carl flying. I don’t believe Brad was purposely trying to crash Carl just trying to win. Then on lap 41 at Sunday’s Kobalt Tools 500 in Atlanta the first contact was again a racing accident. Keselowski had the inside lane Carl was in the middle. Carl tried to squeeze down in front of  Brad but there was no room they make contact and Carl is sent up the track into Logano. Sure Brad maybe could have checked up maybe given him more room, I don’t really know but someone’s spotter failed there and then a wreck occurred.

After the 1st wreck here is what Carl had to say, ““I know Brad has made his career on being super-aggressive. We both had a part in it and it’s not his fault, but it’s just a little too aggressive overall, I think, for that early in the race and caused us to wreck” Apparently while Carl waited for his crew to fix his car for over 100 laps he changed his mind and felt Brad was TOTALLY at fault and wanted payback.

If you’re a NASCAR fan and on Twitter like I am, you can’t escape this, everyone has an opinion. Of course the real passionate ones are those who are either Edwards fans or Keselowski fans or they are passionately against. Here are to NASCAR writers who cover the races, I personally think they make very valid points but have a completely different take on what should happen to Carl Edwards.

From SBNation.com you have Jeff Gluck who writes, “NASCAR Should Not (And Cannot) Punish Carl Edwards” his reasoning is because Edwards’ intention “was not to send the car flying.” Although I agree Edwards didn’t want to see Brad fly and flip in the air, he DID want to wreck him and his actions caused Keselowski to go flying. I’m a father of three boys ages 8 to 7 (I have a set of twins) I know from experience that 90% of the time they get in trouble their intentions are not to get in trouble and typically are harmless. Unfortunately there have been times that what they were doing could have gotten them or someone else hurt even though they weren’t trying to hurt or harm someone. As the father, I had to punish them because there are consequences for ones actions whether it was an accident or on purpose.

I’m also in the TV news business as a meteorologist. I’ve have seen numerous stories about a kid or someone else waving a gun with the intention of scaring and unfortunately the gun goes off and someone is shot. In these situations, although the intention was harmless, harm was caused and again someone had to pay a price for that accident.

Jeff also cites the “Have at it, boys” that NASCAR officials implemented at the beginning of the season:

“We are putting things back in the drivers’ hands,” said NASCAR chairman Brian France. “We’re going to open it up. We want to see what you want to see. We want to see drivers mixing it up. This is a contact sport and you’re going to see more contact. It’s going to make very good racing even better.”

Well when you read that you think, hey Carl was just doing what NASCAR wanted him to do. Go out there and police themselves but if you read more from this Jan 22, 2010 article from ESPN.com Terry Blount, “NASCAR gives drivers the green light” you will find the fine print so to speak:

“It doesn’t mean these guys have a get-out-of-jail-free card,” said NASCAR president Mike Helton. “But there’s an old saying in NASCAR: ‘If you ain’t rubbin’, you ain’t racin’.’ I think that’s what the NASCAR fans bought into and what they expect.

“Our role is to deliver that correctly while maintaining law and order. But we are the last people that want to over-regulate the sport.”

I know Jeff Gluck, I read a lot of what he writes and most of the time I agree with his opinions when he shares them, but this time I don’t. I like Jeff but I respectfully disagree with him on this issue.
I am more in line with what ESPN.com Terry Blount who wrote Monday, “NASCAR needs to drop the hammer on Edwards” he writes:

If NASCAR fluffs off Sunday’s incident and refuses to punish Carl Edwards severely, someone somewhere could die at a future event.

A harsh and uncomfortable thought, but entirely possible if Edwards’ payback moment on Brad Keselowski goes unchecked.

NASCAR’s judgment is coming in a day or two. Suspending Edwards for one race is the right thing to do.

Yes, I know all the wrong reasons why they won’t do it: hypocrisy; Brad had it coming; you can’t take a big-name driver out of the championship with a suspension.

Terry then goes on and breaks down all the “Wrong Reasons” I think everyone should read both sides before attacking anyone on their personal opinion.

Then of course there is the fun and always interesting “What if” game. Trust me I’ve been playing this myself. I have said numerous times on Twitter today that if Keselowski’s car never left the track and only slid bounced off the wall and into the infield this would not be as big of a story as it is today. In fact some people, well mainly those who don’t like Keselowski, would be applauding Carl for taking action into his own hands.

Then you have the car itself, All the flaps that were meant to keep the car from going airborne opened when Brad slid and started to go backwards unfortunately the large wing on the back of the car gives to much lift and that is why the car went airborne. Fortunately NASCAR is going back to the spoiler and let’s hope this fixes the the flying flipping cars.

Then back to Carl. All though he didn’t intend for Brad to go airborne he knew it was a possibility. He himself in an incident last year at Taladega involving Keselowski and Edwards at the end of the race where getting hit in a similar fashion sent him up up and away and he hit the catch fence seriously hurting one young fan who was there for her first ever NASCAR race.

When NASCAR said, “Have at it, boys” back in January I bet they didn’t expect to have to defend it or fine tune it this early on in the season. Although NASCAR is getting lots and lots of publicity on this crash I still think in the end no matter what their final decision is on Carl Edwards there will be a lot of NASCAR fans who will be upset.

WEEKEND FORECAST FOR ATLANTA MOTOR SPEEDWAY:
As I said in the beginning of the week this will be the best weekend for weather we’ve seen all season. The nice thing no race has been shortened do to weather, but one NASCAR Truck series race was postponed and a Nationwide Race was delayed. Given some of the forecasts and proximity rain has been to a race I think we’ve been very lucky.

Overall, we are going to have abundant sunshine. Temperatures from the upper 50s to near 60 on Saturday to the mid 60s on Sunday. At night it will be chilly. During the evening expect 40s & 30s with early morning temperatures in the mid 20s. I decided to break down the forecast for the weekend below.

This Weekends Schedule:

	03|06|10	9:30 a.m.	E-Z GO 200 qualifying
	Sunny Skies	Temp: 47
	03|06|10	11 a.m.	Kobalt Tools 500 practice
	Sunny Skies	Temp: 52
	03|06|10	12:20 p.m.	Kobalt Tools 500 final practice
	Sunny Skies	Temp: 55
	03|06|10	2 p.m.	E-Z GO 200
	Sunny Skies	Temp: 59
	03|07|10	1 p.m.	Kobalt Tools 500
	Sunny Skies	Temp: 64-67

Enjoy the weekend. I won’t need to update the forecast tomorrow, but look for my tweets @NASCAR_WXMAN

Ok this video has been making the rounds on Twitter today. I first saw it posted by Answer this… Here is their take:

Pretty clever “outtake.” Team Lowe’s Racing introduced the video on their Facebook Fan Page and despite it being labeled as an outtake, many fans’ reactions indicate they think it was an unstaged accident.

Upon subsequent viewings, however, it’s hard to ignore the dramatic “NOT FOR AIR” title card, the film slate indicating the actual beginning of the take – and of course, how that strong Kobalt tool box didn’t move an inch when 3,400 pounds of metal landed on it.

I made the mistake by only watching the first part and didn’t catch the whole video. At first I bought into it and then I re-watched it. Being in TV long enough and I saw the them zoom on the Kobalt Toolbox and then Jimmie asked for a screwdriver I started to get the feel that this was more of a staged commercial than an actual accident.

As I was writing this post it appears my inclination that this was an ad like those old Powerade ads with Andy Roddick and LeBron James were correct. It does appear that about 25% of the people who saw this ad (based on SBNation.com NASCAR writer Jeff Gluck estimated by those who tweeted him) believed this was real.

Jeff Was able to catch up with Superman AKA Jimmie Johnson about the ad, you can read his article here on SBNation.com, “Jimmie Johnson Almost Crushed by Falling Car…NOT!“

Conditions in Atlanta, GA – Click here for Current Weather Conditions – Look at Doppler Radar

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

FORECAST DISCUSSION Thursday 4:00pm EST:
I want to thank Atlanta Motor Speedway for mentioning me and this blog on their site Tuesday. Go Check Them Out! I also want to thank Joe Dunn of On Pit Road for his mention of this site on his blog Wednesday

I really can’t add much to this forecast. It’s a GREAT weekend. I will add that if someone asked, “How should I pack or dress for the weekend?” I would tell them dress warm for the night and have layers for the day. Friday is still cool in the mid 50s and you looking at low 60s for highs over the weekend and all three days the morning lows are in the 20s.

Conditions in Atlanta, GA – Click here for Current Weather Conditions – Look at Doppler Radar

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com
FIRST LOOK AT ATLANTA WEEKEND:

This may be the best looking weekend we’ve seen for any race this season. Today a storm system is sliding through the Southeast and will produce rain, a wintry mix and even snow for parts of the south. The good news is this storm system will be out of the region later tonight and from Wednesday through the weekend an area of high pressure builds in keeps Atlanta and the Southeast dry and sunny with temps in the mid to upper 60s. My official forecast could come out later today

Conditions in Las Vegas, NV – Click here for Current Weather Conditions – Look at Doppler Radar

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

FORECAST DISCUSSION SUNDAY 2:30pm EST (11:30am PST):

Despite a rain delay for the NNS race in Las Vegas the weekend has gone pretty well. I feel the forecast was good for Saturday and as I approach every forecast I want everyone to know they could expect. We dodged the rain and the Sprint Cup Race looks good with just a little rain. Let’s have a good one and hope for a safe race.

Just a side note, besides the rain delay yesterday for the NNS race and despite rain falling every weekend this season the 2 other events directly affected by rain. The Truck race and NNS qualifying in Daytona. As the season goes a long I am going to keep track of climatology. So far we’ve had rain at every track and weekend there has been racing but as I mentioned, luckily, we dodged many rain drops. Let’s hope that if it has to rain over a race weekend it doesn’t when no activities are taking place on the track.

Conditions in Fontana, CA – Click here for Current Weather Conditions – Look at Doppler Radar

Complete Broadcast Schedule From NASCAR.com

FORECAST DISCUSSION AS OF SUNDAY MORNING 2pm EST (11amPST):

Below is my original post from this morning, not much has changed but the fact there have been off and on light rain and drizzle all morning in and around Fontana has made me more and more pessimistic. Looking at the Radar the spots are very light, very sparse but the killer is there’s no good way to know where and when these may move over the track…

I think we will see racing but I can’t make the call if it will get postponed, if it will end early or if we will get all the laps in. I will be updating conditions and radar through the race on Twitter.

02|21|10

3 p.m.

Auto Club 500

All week this forecast has given me fits. So here is what I think could happen. Disclaimer, no matter what I forecast today most will not like it and I will have a lot of crap to deal with. That’s the nature of the beast. Here is my philosophy when it comes to forecasting NASCAR races. I want to give everyone all the information available. I will tend to forecast the worst case scenario sometimes using the prepare for the worst and hope for the best mentality.

As I write this forecast it is currently raining and it doesn’t look like the risk of rain will decrease any as we go through the day. I do believe there will be breaks and a possible window but isolated and scattered showers are some of the hardest kind of showers to forecast. Because we don’t always know where one of these showers will pop up.

There very well could be rain for the race today depending when and where the showers pop up. If they have to postpone this race many times I have a feeling they will then have to run it Monday afternoon just because the risk of rain and more rain increases as we progress into the afternoon and evening.

Now if they get the race in then you have the risk and chance that a shower will develop during the race. Of course this could mean postponing it if they don’t get to half way or calling it. Bottom line as I said above, prepare for the worst and home for the best, as a fan I want to see a race but mother nature appears that it could and may very well rain during the race at some point. I will keep you updated as we go through the day so look for updates 1st on Twitter then later before the race here on my blog.

Click for USGS current Earthquake Reports for Southern California

In other natural phenomenon news, there has been a swarm of earthquakes occurring 18-19 miles from Auto Club Speedway. The strongest of these was just slightly over magnitude 3.4. I am not a seismologist this is a little out of my area as far trying to guess or figure out if this is a real threat or not, but I thought this info would be important to pass along. You can read the story here.

Click to Enlarge Below Image

(Quake Map from 7pm EST)

Sunday’s running of the Great American Race was plagued by delays caused by a hole in the track, which could have been aggravated by heavy rains and cool temperatures.

Record cold in Florida during the first week of January, accompanied by severe storms hitting the area last week, could have caused the pavement to become gouged between turns 1 and 2 of Daytona International Speedway.

While Daytona hasn’t been repaved since 1977, old age is definitely a factor in the track’s most recent problems, but this likely not the only factor.

Above-normal rainfall so far for the month of February could have also significantly impacted the asphalt.

The normal rainfall total for February is 1.49 inches, which has already been broken by the current total of 2.69 inches so far for the month.

Below-freezing temperatures affecting the citrus groves also brought similar cold to Daytona in early January. Pavement cracks are much more likely in colder climates, which usually isn’t an issue for Florida.

Sunday’s Daytona 500 was chillier than usual, sporting a high of only 55 F.

Two red flag stops and delays adding up to more than two hours interrupted Daytona’s biggest race. The pothole was nearly 2 inches deep and roughly 9 by 15 inches in size.

The initial fix of the pothole didn’t work, and the second round of maintenance was also unsuccessful. The hole had begun to reopen by the end of the 200-lap race.

Several upcoming events, including Bike Week, will utilize the track beginning March 5. There has been no official word about when the track will be repaved.

The Sprint Cup returns to Daytona in July.

I don’t disagree with this. I know a lot of jokes were made. Some of the media that doesn’t normally cover NASCAR were very criticle of NASCAR and how something like this could happen on their biggest stage. When it comes down to it, there are certain things you can control and Mother Nature is not one of them. I am a meteorologist not structures engineer so I can only comment on the weather. We all know the January and February were very cold for Florida. It was also wet and of course the flood from last year. A lot of things went into this. I have no doubt the those at Daytona International Speedway do everything in their power to maintain and inspect the condition of that track all year and especially during Speed weeks.

Hello everyone, its been while since I posted anything here, then again I didn’t start this NASCAR specific weather blog until the last race of the season. I want to make this a site you can rely on when it comes to your NASCAR weather coverage. This week I will start to get a better design and start to become more active with forecasts. Last season I started doing forecast on Wednesday but maybe I will start on Monday. Keep in mind a forecast for a Sunday race isn’t very accurate until about 3 days out, so that’s why I normally don’t start forecasting until Wednesday.

During a race, this site will not  be as active as Twitter. You can follow me @NASCAR_WXMAN. During the race I tweet weather conditions and weather information if needed other times I am a fan tweeting about the race with other Twitter NASCAR fans.

Now I want to hear from you. What kind of information do you want to see covered here or available to you? I will add what I can but first I  need to hear from you. Leave a comment or send me a tweet.